Russia! Russia!! Russia!!!

[Smitty-48]

But of course it was the Cold War. Now it's totally different in every way, right?

I'm sorry, are you invoking NATO Article V?

Oh, wait, you can't, you're a Neutral, let me rephrase that, is a NATO call sign invoking Article V? No? Didn't think so, but thank you for your concern.

Hmmm... better do a status check, just in case; TACAMO!

Nightwatch, this is Giant Killer Actual, confirm, DEFCON Five.... Giant Killer Actual copies, Nightwatch, DEFCON Five confirmed.

All stations, all stations, this is Giant Killer Actual, we are currently DEFCON Five, say again, currently DEFCON Five, Giant Killer Actual, out.

Alright, it's pretty quiet out there, people, wake me up when somebody crosses the trace, otherwise, smoke em' if you got em'.

[ssu]

Smitty, the name of the game is NOT TO invoke Article V. CENTO and SEATO didn't end up in the dustbin because of a war they lost.

How it's done is By promoting "better relations". Have better relationship between the countries, hopefully through detente, that NATO stops "it's aggression and warmongering". Pulls it's troops from uh... NATO countries.

As I've said, been there. Now how the Russians work. Nope, not going to invade Western Europe if you think mean that. Just to have a better control in the "Near Abroad".

And if NATO crumbles, then our politicians ...and Swedish politicians will tap themselves in the back and say: "Whoa, good that we didn't join that lot!"

[Smitty-48]

Who invited your gutless neutral asses to join NATO? I didn't get that memo.

What do you care what we do in NATO? Who do you think you are, the National Command Authority? SACEUR?

You're not NORAD, you're not NATO, It's none of your concern, eat shit and die, Finnish Pogue, you're not in my chain of command, fuckmuffin, stay off these means.

[ssu]

Who invited your gutless neutral asses to join NATO? I didn't get that memo.

Russia did.

What do you care what we do in NATO? It's none of your concern.

Oh it is our concern. Because you effect what happens here too. The weaker and a more in dissarray you are, the worse for us. The more stronger you are and the more united, the better for us. And naturally we effect our environment ourselves the most, but still...

Heck, my dayjob is about preparing for war (and btw it's great that finally the military is starting again to prepare too, which every peacetime army should do, not to be a "mannequin army" thinking about international deployments) so international politics is naturally interesting.

Si vis pacem, para bellum.

And just like with other developments in the World, it's interesting to follow what is happening.

[Smitty-48]

NATO is not inciting its members to engage in si vis pacem para bellum, quite the opposite in fact, so perhaps NATO has now become a burden to si vis pacem para bellum, rather than a boon.

I agree with Trump, if NATO members won't spend the 2%, then the Americans should look to other means, EUCOM and bilateral arrangements with allies who actually carry their own water, tell the rest of the free riders to go fuck themselves.

Tell you right now, if the Americans told the Liberals up in Ottawa to go fuck themselves across the board if they ain't spending the 2% minimum, I would cackle with glee, and so would every other conservative in Canada, that's exactly what the Americans should so, I only wish the Americans actually had the balls to do it.

If I was the Americans, I would drive a hard bargain, if NATO members were not all spending the requisite 2% by the agreed upon date, then America is dissolving NATO and looking to other means; bring it on, America, please do.

All the Left wing NATO members, are chronically underfunding their defense preparedness, and deliberately so, and they do it, because they never have to pay a price for that, the sooner the Americans exact a price on the free riders, the better it would be for si vis pacem para bellum.

[ssu]

You know Smitty, I do agree with you.

Trump being Trump and saying things like he did, he gets NATO members really to think about the 2% requirement, unlike Obama.

Trump simply insisting on the requirement and really being harsh on those who don't would be an act of true leadership. It would improve NATO, because the reality is that there's no Fulda Gap, where Soviet tanks assisted with nukes could punch through to France and the Benelux countries. Now there's the Suwalki Gap, but that only is at the heart of the Baltic States and Poland.

Suwalki Gap is no Fulda Gap. Long way from Fulda and Central Europe. Here's where it is and what it looks like:



Trump at least has also the possibility to play the Russian card well here. One of his aces is the fact that he is genuinely liked in Russia. It's one thing an US President should not forget to use. Now even if many here think of me as a Trump hater, I still have an open mind towards Trump and waiting to see what happens with the Trump administration. Because presidential candidates and actual presidents can differ like night and day.

[ssu]

Anyway, happy New Year to all!

Going to the Sauna and then for good food and some serious fireworks close to the Russian Border!

2017 will be interesting...

[Smitty-48]

Quite frankly, there's not much to do about the "Suwalki Gap", until Ivan actually makes a move, and reality check; the Baltics are expendable downrange, they're not defensible in any case, dealing with the Russians on a trace in Europe would be a question of defense in depth, there's no way to save the Baltics if the Russians are determined to have them.

If the Americans are worried about the Russians, the Americans should build up their naval and air forces, and upgrade the TRIAD across the board, the Russians pose no land force threat to the CONUS whatsoever, it's entirely a maritime threat; submarines and nuclear weapons.

If the Americans are want to reinforce in the Suwalki Gap, NATO is actually more a burden than a boon, the only ally in there worth their salt, is the Poles, EUCOM bilateral axis with Poland without having to go through Brussels, is where they should put the resources there, the Baltic states would be deadweight, and SHAPE is a pain in the ass.

If you're really a Russia Hawk, if you are really prepared to fight a war with Russia, first thing you have to say is; fuck NATO, because in a real war with Russia, NATO is deadweight; dependants, not allies.If the Americans are want to fund a debating club in Brussels, so be it, but for a real war with Russia, they would need a real war plan, which doesn't go through the debating club at SHAPE.

At the end of the day, all wars with Russia lead to the same place, the breach in a strategic confontation over the polar no mans land, so the ultimate arm of decision, would be an overwhelming nuclear counterforce capability to give the barbarians pause at the gates, NATO would be neither here nor there, the fate of Giant Killer, does not rest in the hands of SHAPE.

[Speaker to Animals]

No way to save Finland either. Or Sweden. Or possibly Norway for that matter.

I think such a war would be the end of western civilization, since our fertility rate is already at extinction event levels, and mass casualties of a WW3 would be the end times for people of European descent.

Russia would eventually be overrun by China in the aftermath. Europe would become an Islamic Caliphate that much faster. USA would be fucked.

That's assuming we don't launch nuclear missiles too.

[Smitty-48]

With an overwhelming nuclear counterforce capability, the odds of ever having to launch the missiles, are extremely remote to say the least, as what are the Russians going to do, in the face of an overwhelming counterforce? Overwhelming counterforce blocks the path to ultimate escalation, by rendering all Russian options to Kobayashi Maru. Si vis pacem para bellum.

Massive countervalue is simply not credible, a mutual countervalue exchange does not deter, because the adversary does not beleive that you would commit national suicide to stop him, but an overwhelming counterforce capability, is the assertion that you are prepared to fight and win, at which point, the barbarians at the gates must pause to consider their total lack of options, in the face of the Eagle with thunderbolts in talons grasped, amongst them at the drop of a hat.