The information war has been crazy. We've seen many false reports from both sides. The Russians claimed to have killed US officers and Spec Ops in Mariupol early on. The West famously pumped the Ghost of Kiev and by last count had shot down 40-50 Russian planes in the first month of the war. Etc.
Russia failed their plan A. Force a quick truce negotiation with binding concessions. The West rejected the deal in May of 2022 and now Ukraine is running out of Soldiers.
Update
Russia has taken Adviika, it was a Ukrainian stronghold that they had built up for years. Ukraine officially says they withdrew, unable to hold it because the US delayed aid. However other reports, including from Willy OAM report that Ukrainian troops broke and ran in a disorderly abandonment of their positions.
Ukraine now has an internal guerilla resistance to deal with. They set fire to a drone factory that produced 5,000 drones, last week they derailed a train carrying artillery shells.
The border dispute between Poland and Ukraine continues.
The border dispute between Poland and Ukraine continues.
Wait wut?
This is 3-4 months old.
My understanding is:
The Poles shut down the border between Poland and Ukraine because the Ukes are dumping cheap wheat on the european market, depressing wheat prices and hurting Polish farmers and Poland. The Ukes are able to produce wheat for almost nothing as the US pays the seed, fertilizer and likely fuel.
Russia has made some strong advances (for this type of war), taking Adveeka, and advancing on two axis.
The first US made M1 Abrahams confirmed kill has been shown in photos and video.
The F-16 will be fielded this Spring by Ukraine.
Ukraine finally started rounding up the Kiev kids (oligarch kids) at discos, to put them on the front line
NYT Report Confirms CIA built 12 spy bases in Ukraine
New reports of Russian troops in Crimea attacking in the south.
NATO chief is calling for direct involvement of limited NATO troops, and Ukraine will be admitted into NATO.
The UN Sec-General is calling for peace.
What does all this mean ?
If anything
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SWAG
The war is coming to an end.
Ukraine is out of troops. The west is out of weapons and western citizens are tired of paying. The west wants to salvage what they can of Ukraine. NATO will offer Ukraine neutrality. I don't know where borders will be set, I suspect Russia is attempting to reach Odessa and get a land link to Romania before peace. Look for Russia to be more aggressive than they have been for 18 months. Terms will be agreed to by the end of the year.
Note
I was right that Zaluzhny would be replaced, wrong that Zelensky would be replaced.
