Trump's Economic Plan

[apeman]

Last year: even a hint that rates could be hiked leads to 5% drop in stock market
This year: 3 hikes forecast? well, let's pile into stocks

Amazing how finance is so narrative-based, and how little fundamentals matter

The story WAS that the Fed was propping up the market, now the Fed doesn't matter, because the story is that Trump will prop up the market.

I wonder what the next story is

[SuburbanFarmer]

Last year: even a hint that rates could be hiked leads to 5% drop in stock market
This year: 3 hikes forecast? well, let's pile into stocks

Amazing how finance is so narrative-based, and how little fundamentals matter

The story WAS that the Fed was propping up the market, now the Fed doesn't matter, because the story is that Trump will prop up the market.

I wonder what the next story is

Very true.

I suspect that most of it will revolve around some wild swings in medical/insurance stocks, and industrials, as everybody tries to figure out wth Trump will do.

The fact that the VIX is hovering around 'nothing' is astounding, given the uncertainty everywhere..

[apeman]

I don't get it.

Bad retail data released this a.m., so stocks up into the rate hike.

IF 9/11 happened today, market would soar instead of drop like it did in 2001.

[SuburbanFarmer]

I don't get it.

Bad retail data released this a.m., so stocks up into the rate hike.

IF 9/11 happened today, market would soar instead of drop like it did in 2001.

Because companies have an implied safety net. We've somehow reached a point of "socialized capitalism". While the rubes are squabbling over healthcare, the government has decided to provide full backing to failed corporations.

Add to that the general assumption that CEO Trump is going full-frontal-spread for business, damn the consequences, and there's no reason to be bearish, ever. America itself seems to be in the middle of a full "blow-off top". The ending of which will probably involve bread lines.

[apeman]

The ending of which will probably involve bread lines.

Most likely, except that we won't have bread lines again. Bad optics, bad politics, gets the proles together to conspire; instead we will get food stamps

[SuburbanFarmer]

The ending of which will probably involve bread lines.

Most likely, except that we won't have bread lines again. Bad optics, bad politics, gets the proles together to conspire; instead we will get food stamps

How long can you keep farmers and food processors working for food stamps?

[apeman]

That doesn't have anything to do with this convo.

There won't be "bread lines" again.

[SuburbanFarmer]

That doesn't have anything to do with this convo.

There won't be "bread lines" again.

It does though. I'm making the point that after we bankrupt the economy (again) and lose Reserve Currency status, plunging the globe into another dark age, food stamps won't be an option. Even if we (somehow) print the fuck out of money forever, and create mass inflation, the only thing of value in circulation would be those food stamps.

How long can you keep the food supply cranking on food stamps? How long does society hold together? My guess is about a month or two. And once those industries aren't cranking out at top efficiency, you have bread lines. Doesn't matter how you play with the money, if there isn't enough food (and goods, etc) to go around.

[apeman]

That doesn't have anything to do with this convo.

There won't be "bread lines" again.

It does though. I'm making the point that after we bankrupt the economy (again) and lose Reserve Currency status, plunging the globe into another dark age, food stamps won't be an option. Even if we (somehow) print the fuck out of money forever, and create mass inflation, the only thing of value in circulation would be those food stamps.

How long can you keep the food supply cranking on food stamps? How long does society hold together? My guess is about a month or two. And once those industries aren't cranking out at top efficiency, you have bread lines. Doesn't matter how you play with the money, if there isn't enough food (and goods, etc) to go around.

OK, I see what's going on, I am talking about the (lack of) relationship between the economy and the markets, and highlighting shrinking real wages for proles, huge capital gains for rich.

You are starting where I am, and then forecasting how the world ends and US loses reserve currency status, and how the population ultimately starves.

[SuburbanFarmer]

That doesn't have anything to do with this convo.

There won't be "bread lines" again.

It does though. I'm making the point that after we bankrupt the economy (again) and lose Reserve Currency status, plunging the globe into another dark age, food stamps won't be an option. Even if we (somehow) print the fuck out of money forever, and create mass inflation, the only thing of value in circulation would be those food stamps.

How long can you keep the food supply cranking on food stamps? How long does society hold together? My guess is about a month or two. And once those industries aren't cranking out at top efficiency, you have bread lines. Doesn't matter how you play with the money, if there isn't enough food (and goods, etc) to go around.

OK, I see what's going on, I am talking about the (lack of) relationship between the economy and the markets, and highlighting shrinking real wages for proles, huge capital gains for rich.

You are starting where I am, and then forecasting how the world ends and US loses reserve currency status, and how the population ultimately starves.

Correct. I can't even envision another outcome anymore. There's simply no other way for this to go. The clown car in Washington appears bound and determined to find the nearest cliff to drive off of.

There's is no fucking way the populace will tolerate another massive bailout (at least that I can imagine), and little or nothing has really changed.