Europe, Boring Until it's Not

[ssu]

Now something different:

Russia next strategic military excersize in the fall of this year, ZAPAD 17, will likely be a huge one. Now it can be just that thing, a huge excersize taking Place in Belarus and Kaliningrad region. But huge military excersizes do increase tensions... and it is telling about the current situation in Europe that big excersizes do get people jumpy.

Going back to the old style? Zapad-81 in 1981:


There are a lot more railway carriages planned to be sent to Belarus By the Russian defence ministry than in the last ZAPAD excersize. Hence an indicator that the excersize might see the 1st Guards Tank Army in Belarus.

the Russian Ministry of Defence is planning to send 20 times more railway carriages to Belarus than during previous 'Zapad' drills in 2013. What's more, the Kremlin’s strategists are not required to publish certain military logistic data in open sources. This is a usual practise. Therefore, to get a more realistic idea of the scale of Russian troops’ redeployment to Belarus, the number of railway carriages should be multiplied at least by a factor of 1.5.

This logistical military data indirectly confirms that Russia is going to redeploy a number of troops to Belarus almost equal to the 1st Guards Tank Army of the Western Military District, and not simply participate in regular military drills.

Would Putin's next move be Belarus? Unlikely, but some Belarussians see this quite ominous:

It seems that the Kremlin is preparing Russian public opinion for a serious crisis in Belarusian-Russian relations. The fruitlessness of Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to Moscow also signals that Belarus is refusing to become a Russian military outpost in the event of a confrontation between NATO and the West.

In the future, an intensification of tension and an increase in coercive measures by the Kremlin – should Belarus continue to defend its national sovereignty and independence – is possible. This could even entail a coup attempt and destabilisation as an excuse for the Russian military to intervene in Belarus and instal a fully pro-Kremlin regime in Minsk.

See Will Russia occupy Belarus in 2017?

Russian armour on rail:


The US has also noted the increase in railcars planned to be used, General Breedlove in a Senate hearing:

“The Russians have ordered 83 times... the rail cars that they ordered for Zapad (in 2013),” Breedlove said at the Senate hearing, reports CBS Radio News correspondent Cami McCormick. “So the size of this exercise will be demonstrably bigger.”

Russia said 10,000 troops took part in the 2013 drills, which spanned across Russian territory and involved all branches of its military, but some Western defense analysts have said the actual number was likely closer to 70,000. “Nations have a right to exercise,” Breedlove said on Thursday. “Nations do not have a right, I think, to exercise irresponsibly on other borders and in configurations that represent offensive capability.” “I think the problem with this exercise is size and scope, directly on the border, a name that orients it west, and the fact the unpredictability of it makes it very alarming,” he said.

See Putin planning to send 100K troops to Baltic border for drills?

The Baltic States, as usual, are crying wolf over this September excersize:

Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite says the Baltic states will seek additional security measures from the United States and NATO ahead of a massive Russian military exercise in September."We see that risks are increasing, and we are worried about the upcoming Zapad 2017 exercise, which will deploy a very large and aggressive force [on our borders] that will very demonstrably be preparing for a war with the West," Grybauskaite said on February 9 after meeting with the Estonian and Latvian presidents in Riga.

She added: "This means we will be talking with NATO about creating additional standing defense plans, about stationing additional military means, and about creating a faster decision-making process."

See Lithuanian President Says Baltics Seek Greater NATO Security Ahead Of Russian Exercises

President Grybauskaite with an American soldier deployed to the Baltics:


What to expect? At least what is sure is that next September we will see one huge military excersize.

[BjornP]

Russia's approach to its few, geographically close allies and friendly nations seems very different than the American approach to its NATO allies. Putin sort of questioned Kazakhstan's legitimacy as a state some years when asked by some Russian students, and Ukraine used to have a friendly relationship with them as well until before Crimea became a seriously treated political issue out of the blue. Russia can't expect to have any reliable allies if all they see is Russia getting everything out of an alliance, or if Russia's idea of an alliance is really more a case of them vassalizing their allies.

But with Belarus, I suspect the best guarentee for the regime to keep the degree of power they've had since becoming independent, is to keep aligned with Russia. Not that EU and the US can't ally with dictatorships in the name of national security and economic interests, but it's somehow harder these days to sell aligning yourself with dictactorships if they're European.

[Martin Hash]

I heard China is looking for "alliances"?

We're MAGA here in the States at the moment.

[Smitty-48]

I don't think the 1st Guards Tank Army is actually up to speed yet, so far it only comprises 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division, 2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motor-Rifle division, 6th Tank Brigade and 27th Sevastopolskaya Motor-Rifle Brigade, so more of a Corps minus than a true Guards Army at this juncture, they got some more building to do with it, before it is the Beast from the East GSFG style.

When it is four Guards Tank Divisions and at least two Guards Motor-Rifle Divisions, fully kitted out, then I'd call it up to speed.

[TheReal_ND]

Minor happening in Montenegro. Fifty Algerians trashed a city and in a separate incident raped a 15 year old girl on a bus. Apparently the citizens are extremely upset because nobody told them they were taking refugees.

[TheReal_ND]

[Speaker to Animals]

Did they just figure out we already won generation Z?

[Okeefenokee]

Did they just figure out we already won generation Z?

Pewdiepie red pilled 'em. He's like Sesame Street with an agenda.

[Alexander PhiAlipson]

[SuburbanFarmer]

Minor happening in Montenegro. Fifty Algerians trashed a city and in a separate incident raped a 15 year old girl on a bus. Apparently the citizens are extremely upset because nobody told them they were taking refugees.

You're telling me that I could take a city with 50 untrained men?