Trump's Economic Plan

[Okeefenokee]

That's cool. Except that you can't target specific companies. They'll just reform and rename.

So, you'll be targeting "all goods coming from China". Which means that you'll have to raise the price/tariff to a point that it's more profitable to pay an American $15/hr to make your plastic shit. That means that you will now pay (just guessing here) around 10-20x as much for plastic shit, once you factor in required benefits and healthcare, and Social Security, etc.

Cool, so now a squirt gun costs about $20, but we pissed off China, and people are working!

Except they're working an entire week to afford some plastic shit. But we're WINNING!!!

Hell yes you can target anybody you want to target.

You are making a false dichotomy here.

Nor does China invent and produce their own products. If anything, we seem to hold them back with this relationship in that they have no incentive to actually innovate. They have a very high IQ population, not unlike South Korea, and yet unlike South Korea, they don't invent anything on their own.

My contention is that, if they had to exit this offshoring business model, they would be forced to actually compete like South Korea does.

I also forgot to mention before that your assertion that American companies would just raise prices implies such an utter lack of competition that, if true, tariffs would be among the least of your problems.

EXACTLY!!!!

looks like you and TC took the same ESL course.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Things are awesome. Bai Moar Stawks!

https://riskreversal.com/2017/03/02/mor ... ou-killed/

[adwinistrator]

So I hear Trump said today that he can't do Tax reform until Congress repeals Obamacare and that issue is dealt with.

So, Congress, it's in your hands.

Trump needs to offer a replacement to Obamacare in detail. Write the bill himself and submit it. The worst possible course of action would be to repeal the Affordable Care Act with no immediate replacement.

I thought he already had his ACA replacement worked out?

[SuburbanFarmer]

Sounds like a solid plan. Just need those unicorn tears to make it happen.

[jbird4049]

2000 and 2008 were bipartisan fuck-ups. It's impossible to blame them on D or R, and especially foolish to try and tie them to any tax policies.

The dotcom bust was an entirely normal bubble in a new technology - the internet. We've seen several similar little busts in 3D printing, GoPro cams, and mobile gaming just these past few years. It wasn't possible to reach such epic nonsense without the repeal of Glass-Steagall, but it was nothing compared to 2008.

The 2008 crisis was an epic clusterfuck, chalked up mainly to Glass-Steagal, and a host of other megacorp suck-offs by the Bush administration, helping to distract from our new Permanent War policy. And at the end of it, Obama basically handed the corporatocracy the keys to the country.

Now we've sat on 0% interest rates for a decade and gone nowhere. Trillions of dollars are sitting in bank vaults like a time bomb, awaiting usefulness. Now we have a R president with little or no concept of global Econ, and a D Fed Chair, sitting on the trigger. You don't even have to think about what happens next.

Buy assets. Take on debt. Grow some food.

A much delayed comment here. I was working in San Francisco during the Dotcom boom and it was insane. I have never seen it so intense. But when it burst, it was as if half the population vanished. My commute center haved in time. It was not your regular boom-bust. It was not as bad as 2008 but a lot of people lost their jobs.

[jbird4049]

No. If we enact a 20% tariff on X, Y, and Z from China, then our domestic companies will wait approximately .3 seconds before raising their prices on X, Y, and Z by exactly 19%.

That is the effect of tariffs. Trade is stopped, and consumers are gouged, because you're creating an artificial restriction on supply. Nothing more. There is no benefit, other than higher corporate profits on X, Y, and Z, and pissing off China, which does nothing other than make you feel good standing in the soup line.

Depends how you implement the tariffs.

Our nation operated with tariffs for almost 200 years, no problem. China seems to be doing quite well with tariffs.

But more to the point: the way tariffs have been suggested in recent months is a means to stop the practice of offshoring jobs in such a way that American companies decide to produce goods meant for American markets in the developing world and then "import" those goods back into America.

That's not really trade, and it may be that the best way to deal with it is to penalize those companies by placing a tariff on their goods so that it would be cheaper for them to just make American goods in America.

That's cool. Except that you can't target specific companies. They'll just reform and rename.

So, you'll be targeting "all goods coming from China". Which means that you'll have to raise the price/tariff to a point that it's more profitable to pay an American $15/hr to make your plastic shit. That means that you will now pay (just guessing here) around 10-20x as much for plastic shit, once you factor in required benefits and healthcare, and Social Security, etc.

Cool, so now a squirt gun costs about $20, but we pissed off China, and people are working!

Except they're working an entire week to afford some plastic shit. But we're WINNING!!!

I have to go with Doc here. The American government colluded with the large corporations to ship production overseas. They have been doing this since the 60s. It was policy to help other countries, especially ones that could help us during the Cold War. This includes tax breaks/credit for actually moving factories overseas.

Off the top of head:

Consumer electronics to Japan in the 60s-70s (although the not autos. American automakers' crap did that)
Shipbuilding (although I don't know exactly why this happened)
Textiles, clothing, and shoes in the 70s-90s.
Machine tools and dies in the 80s-90s
Aviation in the 80s
Miscellaneous specialty manufacturing like glass or buttons.
Steel in the 80s-90s
Machinery like passenger jets, farm tractors or air conditioners 90s-Present.

The industries that remain have focused on making monopolies, patents and lawsuits on, reducing executive like research, employee training, employee happiness, or even customers satisfaction, or any long term planning beyond quarterly earnings, and stock prices.

As an example, some of the reasons that we lack effective new antibiotics, or improved vaccines, or why drugs costs so much is because the pharmaceutical industry doesn't want to pay for the research, but is willing to acquire exclusive rights to making drugs, raising prices, or having laws passed to prevent importation even from Canada.

One could blame the eeevile unions, or complain about how badly the various municipal spend their money or about how lazy or stupid blacks, or poor whites, are, but after 50 years of destroying industry after industry just how are people going to find work, or many places have enough of a taxbase to fund anything even just road maintenance not matter how frugal they are.

It is rather insulting don't you think?

[SuburbanFarmer]

Depends how you implement the tariffs.

Our nation operated with tariffs for almost 200 years, no problem. China seems to be doing quite well with tariffs.

But more to the point: the way tariffs have been suggested in recent months is a means to stop the practice of offshoring jobs in such a way that American companies decide to produce goods meant for American markets in the developing world and then "import" those goods back into America.

That's not really trade, and it may be that the best way to deal with it is to penalize those companies by placing a tariff on their goods so that it would be cheaper for them to just make American goods in America.

That's cool. Except that you can't target specific companies. They'll just reform and rename.

So, you'll be targeting "all goods coming from China". Which means that you'll have to raise the price/tariff to a point that it's more profitable to pay an American $15/hr to make your plastic shit. That means that you will now pay (just guessing here) around 10-20x as much for plastic shit, once you factor in required benefits and healthcare, and Social Security, etc.

Cool, so now a squirt gun costs about $20, but we pissed off China, and people are working!

Except they're working an entire week to afford some plastic shit. But we're WINNING!!!

I have to go with Doc here. The American government colluded with the large corporations to ship production overseas. They have been doing this since the 60s. It was policy to help other countries, especially ones that could help us during the Cold War. This includes tax breaks/credit for actually moving factories overseas.

Off the top of head:

Consumer electronics to Japan in the 60s-70s (although the not autos. American automakers' crap did that)
Shipbuilding (although I don't know exactly why this happened)
Textiles, clothing, and shoes in the 70s-90s.
Machine tools and dies in the 80s-90s
Aviation in the 80s
Miscellaneous specialty manufacturing like glass or buttons.
Steel in the 80s-90s
Machinery like passenger jets, farm tractors or air conditioners 90s-Present.

The industries that remain have focused on making monopolies, patents and lawsuits on, reducing executive like research, employee training, employee happiness, or even customers satisfaction, or any long term planning beyond quarterly earnings, and stock prices.

As an example, some of the reasons that we lack effective new antibiotics, or improved vaccines, or why drugs costs so much is because the pharmaceutical industry doesn't want to pay for the research, but is willing to acquire exclusive rights to making drugs, raising prices, or having laws passed to prevent importation even from Canada.

One could blame the eeevile unions, or complain about how badly the various municipal spend their money or about how lazy or stupid blacks, or poor whites, are, but after 50 years of destroying industry after industry just how are people going to find work, or many places have enough of a taxbase to fund anything even just road maintenance not matter how frugal they are.

It is rather insulting don't you think?

Depends on your objective. Look at the global scope.

If your objective is simply to keep the population here employed, then yeah, a tariff will do that. However, it will also create massive price inflation, as I mentioned. You'll move a lot of factories back here, once the tariffs are high enough, but those workers will be working much harder to afford the goods produced. That's more welfare, and miserable drones.

If your objective is to create prosperity, then you need to remove the obstructions to small business formation, and stop subsidizing the megacorps.

We've effectively moved beyond mercantilism, and embraced global trade. We don't need to make everything here, because we can buy it from elsewhere for less than our own workers require in order to be 'middle-class'.

The real issue is the insane disparity in currency values between us and our chief manufacturer - China. Their people are fine with making $3/hr because that buys a hell of a lot there. Our people can't even live on less than $15/hr, so it makes no sense to manufacture things here.

Meanwhile, the banksters just laugh and keep trading from their McMansions, while the rest of us are squabbling over the crumbs.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Whatever hippies.

All of our problems are caused by unions and moral degeneracy.

Hanarchy Out!

[jbird4049]

Depends on your objective. Look at the global scope.

If your objective is simply to keep the population here employed, then yeah, a tariff will do that. However, it will also create massive price inflation, as I mentioned. You'll move a lot of factories back here, once the tariffs are high enough, but those workers will be working much harder to afford the goods produced. That's more welfare, and miserable drones.

If your objective is to create prosperity, then you need to remove the obstructions to small business formation, and stop subsidizing the megacorps.

We've effectively moved beyond mercantilism, and embraced global trade. We don't need to make everything here, because we can buy it from elsewhere for less than our own workers require in order to be 'middle-class'.

The real issue is the insane disparity in currency values between us and our chief manufacturer - China. Their people are fine with making $3/hr because that buys a hell of a lot there. Our people can't even live on less than $15/hr, so it makes no sense to manufacture things here.

Meanwhile, the banksters just laugh and keep trading from their McMansions, while the rest of us are squabbling over the crumbs.

Isn't the Chinese insistence on undervaluing they Yuan a kind of tariff? If they insist on doing that, than tariffs are the necessary answer, much as it is dangerous. Just as with climate change, we are losing easy options, and there will be pain.

However you define the causes, the system has hollowed out the United States' economy at worse, or created economic dead zones throughout the country at best. I'm not worried about the Chinese, and American, elites, and their leadership. I am worried about the rest of us. Something has to be done Now for if we are not looking at revolution, or civil war, than at least unrest that surpassed the 60s.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Depends on your objective. Look at the global scope.

If your objective is simply to keep the population here employed, then yeah, a tariff will do that. However, it will also create massive price inflation, as I mentioned. You'll move a lot of factories back here, once the tariffs are high enough, but those workers will be working much harder to afford the goods produced. That's more welfare, and miserable drones.

If your objective is to create prosperity, then you need to remove the obstructions to small business formation, and stop subsidizing the megacorps.

We've effectively moved beyond mercantilism, and embraced global trade. We don't need to make everything here, because we can buy it from elsewhere for less than our own workers require in order to be 'middle-class'.

The real issue is the insane disparity in currency values between us and our chief manufacturer - China. Their people are fine with making $3/hr because that buys a hell of a lot there. Our people can't even live on less than $15/hr, so it makes no sense to manufacture things here.

Meanwhile, the banksters just laugh and keep trading from their McMansions, while the rest of us are squabbling over the crumbs.

Isn't the Chinese insistence on undervaluing they Yuan a kind of tariff? If they insist on doing that, than tariffs are the necessary answer, much as it is dangerous. Just as with climate change, we are losing easy options, and there will be pain.

However you define the causes, the system has hollowed out the United States' economy at worse, or created economic dead zones throughout the country at best. I'm not worried about the Chinese, and American, elites, and their leadership. I am worried about the rest of us. Something has to be done Now for if we are not looking at revolution, or civil war, than at least unrest that surpassed the 60s.

It's like a tariff, but far more effective. The US dollar is a victim of its own success as the Reserve Currency.
Since we abolished the Gold Standard in 1971, and everybody else's currency is pinned to ours, currency has no inherent value. This is the greatest danger of all. Effectively, we can't devalue our dollar, even though we're trying like hell. Meanwhile, the Yuan is the only major currency not pegged to the mighty Dollar, and they're bucking the system. Their central bank simply declares whatever they feel like valuing it at.

So, we can't afford to manufacture our crap here, and keep the high corporate profits that we're used to. Of course, our corporate masters will never lower prices to match, so we'll end up paying up to whatever-it-costs for an American to make plastic toys, or our shit will get made somewhere else in the third-world. There's a lot of extra labor in south america, africa, and india that would just love to put shit together for us. It's a whack-a-mole game that we won't win.

The purely objectivist solution would be a small war with China, to destroy their manufacturing/overthrow their government/force them into debt. It would be impossible to sell to the public, and could well end the world in the process, so there's that.

The only - and I do mean only - solution is for Americans to employ each other on small scale, and damn the megacorps. That simply won't be allowed by Those Who Run Our Congress, and the 1%, so revolution it is. It's the inevitable end of a long process of corporate pillaging and corruption, and it will be a hard lesson for the world. It may not be the End of Capitalism, but it will certainly give it a black eye.

Grow some food. Set up rain barrels. Teach your kids to do the same.