Meanwhile in Ukraine

[Smitty-48]

based on the OSINT I am seeing

nothing much has changed since yesterday

there is no sign that eastern Ukraine has fallen

[Smitty-48]

and Russian-backed militias are clearing Azov out of Mariupol city center now.

this is also a false claim

based on drone footage of Mariupol; the Russians are simply shelling the city

they are not closing with the Ukrainians in the city

there are no Russian boots on the ground there, again, since they are shelling it indiscriminately

you are being taken in by Kremlin propaganda,

seemingly with a confirmation bias, like you are searching for it just so you can propagate it

[Smitty-48]

the only confirmed casualty report from Mariupol today; is a Russian spy being killed

the Russians have confirmed that GRU officer Alexey Glushchak was killed in Mariupol yesterday

they declined to provide details

so it seems more that the Russians inside the city are the ones being hunted down

[C-Mag]

China trading with Pootin in Yuhan
India Trading with Pootin Rupee to Ruble
Turkey, Ankara and Moscow can use the “dollar, euro, ruble, gold and yuan in trade,”

Is this a future Asian economic alliance ?

Yes. After witnessing what the U.S. did, why would any nation stick with the dollar? All they have to say is “we won’t do what the Americans did.”

Add Saudi Arabia

[Smitty-48]

in terms of Azov regiment activity, there is some OSINT here and there in the noise

this is Azov regiment here engaging Russian BMP's

based on the console being used and the cannon fire being put down by the Azov vehicle

it appears Azov is equipped with the latest Ukrainian Kevlar E armored fighting vehicles

[Smitty-48]

there again, you can see the problem for the Russians

those are BMP's from the 1970's, using old periscopes & optical sights

the Ukrainians have NATO technology, remote automatic turrets with thermal sights

so the Russian 3rd Generation 1980's army can rain artillery fire down on civilian population centers

but other than that, the Russians are getting their asses handed to them it seems

[Martin Hash]

Well, then it’s over: Ukraine won. I could only find the one narrative counter to those reports. Why would Ukraine even bother going to Israel? Give it a couple months & all the Russians will be dead.

[Smitty-48]

trust me, I am searching for OSINT of the Russians laying a beat down on the Ukrainians

there are a couple engagements were the Russians could be described as winning I suppose

but nothing like the volumes of OSINT showing the Ukrainians mauling the Russians all over the place

if the Russians have the footage of them laying some beat downs, why wouldn't they release it ?

[Martin Hash]

Which possibility seems more likely: that the lines haven’t changed in 2 weeks, or Russia has continued its campaign?

Mariupol was captured by Russian-separatists in 2014. Azov went there to brutally suppress the rebellion: that’s why they’re still there. It’s not the Russians fighting Azov, it’s the rebels who live there.

[Smitty-48]

now, are the Ukrainians suffering significant casualties from Russian stand off joint fires ?

certainly they must be, I factor that in as an assumption

none the less

the Russians cannot win a war of attrition here

the Ukrainians have mobilized their entire 300,000 man active army, plus a 900,000 man reserve

so this is now 225,000 Russians

against a 1.2 million man Ukrainian army