Poking the Bear Again

[Martin Hash]

Trump was a foreign policy god: it was carrot, carrot, carrot - fuck with me and you get the stick.

Describe what you think Hillary Clinton's foreign policy would be.

Fuck with me Gaddafi.

[Smitty-48]

Maybe. Seemed unpredictable to me.

that was act to get elected

in reality, he pretty much did what the Generals told him to do

Fair enough.

the thing to focus on is doctrine

in the event of war, things will be moving so fast the President will be mostly a passenger

how it is going to be fought is decided well beforehand in the doctrine

Obama oversaw the doctrinal change, since then everybody has been following his doctrine

[Smitty-48]

the core of the Obama doctrine is thus

it is no longer a bipolar world USA vs USSR

so MAD is no longer paramount

in actual fact America may have to fight and win a nuclear war at the theatre level

so counterforce is back, flexible response, it's not a case of America having its hands tied to Massive Retaliation

instead, America has all options on the table, and may use nuclear weapons in all sorts of innovative ways

[Smitty-48]

the thing is, you ideology doesn't fucking matter

the nuclear weapons don't care what your ideology is

if you've got 9 to 12 nuclear powers all deploying tactical nuclear weapons in theatres ?

counterforce is the reality whether your like it or not

[Haumana]

Dude, really? We didn’t even have this shit under Trump. False Equivalency mutterfukker.

Trump's unpredictably as stated by the media. Dude was very predictable to anyone not under the spell.

[Smitty-48]

Dude, really? We didn’t even have this shit under Trump. False Equivalency mutterfukker.

Trump's unpredictably as stated by the media. Dude was very predictable to anyone not under the spell.

exactly, what was so unpredictable ?

his strategic policy was quite simple & direct

America's allies are not paying their share, either they start ponying up more, or America will do less for them

these people who see him as some radical "Disruptor" were just projecting what they wanted to see

that's what the masses do with every President

that's what the Democrats did with Obama, who was actually a GOP like NeoCon Hawk

[Smitty-48]

the best feature of both Trump & Obama was basically gridlock

less is more, they didn't get much done, so they couldn't do much damage

the danger now is that Woke is giving this new administration a blank cheque to run amok

they could nuke the world so long as it is in the name of AntiRacismProTrans

[Smitty-48]

it's not even about what the White House does or doesn't do

this bus is being driven by the allies in theatre

if Poland overthrows Lukashenka, that will blow up in America's face

if the Ukrainians provoke the Russians in the Donbass, that could blow up in America's face

whatever happens in the theatre, it's gonna blow up in America's face

right now America is just drifting towards that event horizon listlessly

Biden doesn't have a plan, thus the plans of the allies become America's plans by default

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Setting aside the inherent unpredictability that came from the fact that Trump didn't have a foreign policy record of any kind since he hadn't ever held a public office before, his approach to North Korea was different.

For someone who was supposed to be a China hawk, I was surprised that he signaled that Beijing should be harder on Hong Kong - maybe that was a clever statesmanship move, trying to build a positive relationship with Xi, but I wouldn't have predicted it.

I'm not trying to litigate whether they were good or bad moves - but I was often surprised - and I think our allies were often surprised as well. Even if he was entirely predictable to someone who was really keyed into his foreign policy agenda, I'm not sure either our allies or our enemies were sure what to expect.

He was essentially elected on the promise of being a disruptor, so it stands to reason he would be perceived as one. That might reflect the assumptions of those doing the perceiving - but when you say "Imma shake this bitch up!" you can't really be surprised when people bring that assumption to the table.

[Smitty-48]

- but when you say "Imma shake this bitch up!" you can't really be surprised when people bring that assumption to the table.

that's not unpredictability, so long as you do what you say you're going to do, you're predictable

Trump was predictably belligerent in everybody's face, that didn't surprise me at all