SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

[Speaker to Animals]

I think Asheville has another two to three weeks before our 113 ventilators are used and people start dying who did not have to. Meanwhile Cuomo is crying about not taking 30k additional ventilators when NYC already has about four times as many ventilators per capita as most places.

Death rate in the shit hole cities seems to be doubling about every three to four days. From the data we have in my area, the confirmed cases are doubling about every three days. There is no testing because our federal government is a total shit show (if dems want a reason for impeachment, here it is). Researchers in several papers estimate about 80% of infections are not caught in America right now. To get a grip on what that means, divide the current confirmed cases count of your community by 0.2. If it doubles every 3-5 days, you can project out its growth trajectory. Find out how many ventilators there are available to your area. With a conservative assumption that about 8% will need ventilators, divide your ventilator count by 0.08. That is about what number of infected it takes for your surge capacity to get wiped out. Go back to your projected growth and figure out how many days it will be before you reach that point.

Western North Carolina had about 60 confirmed cases as of Wed. Which was probably around 300 total cases. We have 113 ventilators. Once we hit about 1,400 cases, our meager surge capacity will be blown. That is about five doubling cycles from now. Doubling about every 3-5 days, we have between 15 and 25 days unless even more extreme lock down orders are in place.


Ecuador is about to collapse. They are literally burning bodies in the street. If you still cling to the idea that this will abate much for the Summer, you may want to disabuse yourself of that notion. I think there is a good chance much of the developing world is going to collapse. I strongly advise people to not engage in the magical wishful thinking on display by our governments. It is better to be happily surprised if this thing abates in two months than to be horrified your assumption turned out false and you made poor planning choices because of them.

I am kind of at the point where I accept the inevitable and just want to get it over with. I transitioned from prepping for immediate supplies a few weeks ago. Right now I am focused on how to best set up my immune system to survive the infection and figuring out how to deploy containers growing vegetables around neighbor and friend homes to hedge against the probable food shortages next Fall. If there are no shortages, then we can just reduce grocery bills for a year.

Just running the numbers leads me to conclude this thing is much worse than most people want to believe. I suspect this may be the most dangerous bug we have ever faced. We are fortunate that we have science and technology to reduce mortality rates substantially and knowledge of how this bug works to better avoid infection. But a lot of the world is nowhere near our level.

[pineapplemike]

chi-na

[Smitty-48]

People are starting to do crazy shit in the GTA here

On guy ran down a cyclist with his car, then crashed his car into a pole, then got out and beat the cyclist with a pipe, then tried to flee by TTC bus, when that didn't work, he ran off into the neighborhood on foot

Another one was two cars street racing on the 401, when the cops came in pursuit, the racers didn't stop, they tried to out drive the cops, they came off the highway into the suburbs and crashed trying to make a tight corner, weren't even wearing seatbelts because both occupants, a man and a woman, were ejected through the windshield

[Speaker to Animals]

Alright so, one confirmed case, six other suspected cases, where I work. They are going to move most of them out of here over the course of the next day or so. My bosses are still here, and we got several outside nurses coming into help with this thing. Apparently some of them aren't even being paid for it, mostly volunteers. All the residents getting swabbed tomorrow.

Totally DEFCON 1 up in here.

Sounds like a lesson hard learned for you. Take a fuck ton of vitamin D.

I’d suggest you spike insulin before eating to get as much glucose to your immune cells as possible.

[SuburbanFarmer]

We’re approaching the Weirdness now for sure. The Midwest is holding strong. Good response by the states, and people aren’t fucking around so much. Old people still insisting on flea market trips, but otherwise it’s quiet as hell.

[Smitty-48]

Everything is better than usual round my immediate area

Everybody is rising to the occasion under wartime conditions

Bit of an older affluent crowd round here, so we all have skin in the game

[Smitty-48]

Mrs Smitty just walked the dogs, says they have closed the conservation area up at the parking lot off the road

But we have our own private gate straight into it from here

Gated Community with Private Conservation Area

Living like the rich at middle class prices

:fist pumps:

[Smitty-48]

I've got plenty of firepower but it's just Look Cool Factor right now

Nobody is breaking into houses, because everybody is home

The criminals are breaking into businesses instead, because they are abandoned

The top crimes right now are commercial burglary, driving offenses & domestic assaults

[Smitty-48]

The banks here have cut their credit card rates in half, from 20% to 10%

I don't think that's kindness, that's fear, because everybody is going to start to default at once.

Not to mention the civil courts are completely shut down, so you can't sue anybody right now anyways

[Smitty-48]

That's hilarious.

She wasn't taking this seriously enough at first, she was calling me paranoid : Crazy Man

So I had to run a crash recruit course on her for war, compressed into about two weeks

Mind games, but to good purpose

By the end of the second week she was having panic attacks

So then I dialed it back and switched to Big Strong Man : I got this

:flexes: