Our Guy Flynn

[StCapps]

The media is baised, but I don't doubt that CNN has sources with access to SIGINT, I'm sure those sources are biased as well, or they wouldn't be leaking, but I don't think they would fabricate the leak out of whole cloth, if they are leaking that they got Flynn dead to rights, then they got Flynn dead to rights.

Insert one hundred billion eye rolls here.

I don't buy that Flynn was not central to the team, Flynn was at the very top with total access to the President, one of the most trusted advisors, in the inner circle, clearly, you don't get to be National Security Advisor if you are just a throw away, if Trump had not suddenly demanded that Flynn fall on his sword, on the drop of a hat, I would not be smelling panic, but because they did, because they turned on Flynn so completely and so precipitously, after only three weeks, without putting up any sort of resistance, now I am smelling panic, that's a panicky thing to do, dictionary defintion of.

Reagan threw away his first NSA pretty quick, they ain't always that central, Reagan had six of them over eight years, that's quite the quick burn rate. Not seeing the panic you are, maybe I will eventually, but so far, you are jumping the gun on media propaganda.

Assuming Trump's NSA is super central to his administration is not the slam dunk you think it is. Considering how quick Trump threw Flynn under the bus, it seems likely you were just wrong that Flynn was that important. Maybe you are just too attached to that assessment and it's leading you to misread this situation.

[ssu]

At least Pence has a chance here for a power grab and to lay some ground work if it comes to the "unthinkable", a Pence administration (I mean, who knows with Trump).

(Fox News) President Trump was reportedly told six days into his presidency that his former national security adviser Michael Flynn misled the vice president about his phone calls with Russia, but did not tell his second-in-command. Trump, after learning about the phone calls, kept Vice President Pence in the dark about Flynn’s conversations with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak, the Associated Press reported Tuesday, citing White House officials.

Pence and other officials emphatically defended Flynn in the weeks leading up to his resignation. “They did not discuss anything having to do with the United States’ decision to expel diplomats or impose censure against Russia,” Pence said in a televised interview with CBS News last month.

Marc Lotter, a Pence spokesman, said the vice president only became aware that he had received “incomplete information” from Flynn after the first Washington Post report last Thursday. Pence learned about the Justice Department warnings to the White House around the same time. Pence and White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus played an integral role in Flynn’s resignation, sources told Fox News.

See Trump reportedly kept Pence in dark about Flynn's Russian phone calls

I think Pence is playing this thing quite well. Pence is defending his boss, as people think he ought to do, but doesn't get at all the fallout that some Conway or Spicer get. Hard to find any reporting or comments negative on Pence.

[Smitty-48]

I'm just blue skying, but I think Flynn did quid pro quo with the Russians, I know Flynn, and that's just the sort of thing Flynn would do, Flynn is Mr. The Rules Don't Apply To Me And Even If They Do They're Stupid Rules Anyways And So Should Be Broken, that's Flynn, that's how Flynn was at JSOC, that's how Flynn was at DIA, so I find the idea that Flynn went too far, beyond plausible deniability, to be quite plausible, because he's done that many times before in fact.

I also think Trump was winging it, playing fast and loose, and I find the idea that Trump green lighted Flynn to quid pro quo, without giving himself plausible deniability, to be quite plausible as well, Golden Showers, that sounds far fetched, but Talk to the Russians and tell them we'll take care of it, that's much more in the realm of plausbility.

As for NSA, well you know they've got all the Russians wired for sound, and you know they're not going to be minimizing Flynn when he comes on the line, if Flynn is calling the Russians, that's a clean intercept, they don't have to shut that down, as long as it is a Russian target on the other end, SIGINT is good to go to intercept that, no FISA required, so the idea that they have Flynn dead to rights; very, very plausible indeed.

[StCapps]

Flynn might like to get around the rules but he had to know he was being listened to or that he could be listened in on and he would cover his ass accordingly by at least winking and nudging and not saying it outright. If he didn't think of that then he's one of the dumbest motherfuckers to ever be nominated for NSA. Chance of dead to rights is not that big unless you think Flynn is just straight up retarded. His ego might be huge, but is it that huge to blind him to that degree? Not buying that just yet.

Even if Trump did tell Flynn to do it, you got to think Trump was smart enough to not have that be anymore than Trump's word against Flynn's or he's one of the dumbest motherfuckers ever. Chances of either going down being caught dead to rights? It's possible but it really requires next levels of stupid to happen.

[ssu]

Assuming Trump's NSA is super central to his administration is not the slam dunk you think it is. Considering how quick Trump threw Flynn under the bus, it seems likely you were just wrong that Flynn was that important. Maybe you are just too attached to that assessment and it's leading you to misread this situation.

This isn't a normal change of guard here. The point is that Trump is throwing everybody that raise questions about Trumps links to Russia really quickly under the bus.

First it was Page (who was even denied to be one of the early foreign policy advisors), who wasn't so important. Then it was his campaign manager Manafort, quite important guy and now Flynn. And then there's Trumps odd behaviour when it comes to Russia, which is especially noticeable as how "normal to Republicans" his stance is on China. The fact how long Trump after being informed about the issue (By Yates, the DCI, the CIA director) kept the thing even from Pence is a factor here.

[Smitty-48]

It's not that Flynn is dumb, but he is cocky, that is the book on Flynn, that is what got Flynn fired every single time, he's a brilliant intel operator, but he just keeps breaking the rules, it's like what they tried to nail Hillary Clinton on, the unauthorized server, Flynn did that too, that's how they got rid of Flynn at DIA, neither Flyn nor Clinton is stupid, but these sorts of people in these sorts of positions, they get cocky, they start to beleive that the rules don't apply to them, they do things that catch them in a jackpot, I mean, ultimate example is Richard Nixon, Richard Nixon was not a stupid man, and he was an extremely experienced poilitician, and he knew his enemies were out to get him, and yet Richard Nixon brought himself down, how? Why? Too Cocky; "if the President does it it's legal".

Flynn is like that too. "If Flynn does it it's legal", he played it that way at JSOC, he played it that way at DIA, would not surprise me at all, if he was playing it that way with the Russians.

[StCapps]

Assuming Trump's NSA is super central to his administration is not the slam dunk you think it is. Considering how quick Trump threw Flynn under the bus, it seems likely you were just wrong that Flynn was that important. Maybe you are just too attached to that assessment and it's leading you to misread this situation.

This isn't a normal change of guard here. The point is that Trump is throwing everybody that raise questions about Trumps links to Russia really quickly under the bus.

First it was Page (who was even denied to be one of the early foreign policy advisors), who wasn't so important. Then it was his campaign manager Manafort, quite important guy and now Flynn. And then there's Trumps odd behaviour when it comes to Russia, which is especially noticeable as how "normal to Republicans" his stance is on China. The fact how long Trump after being informed about the issue (By Yates, the DCI, the CIA director) kept the thing even from Pence is a factor here.

None of that has to mean that Flynn is caught dead to rights and there is rock solid proof Trump put him up to it though. It may not be a normal changing of the guard but some people are over blowing this thus far and it's not just the media.

[StCapps]

It's not that Flynn is dumb, but he is cocky, that is the book on Flynn, that is what got Flynn fired every single time, he's a brilliant intel operator, but he just keeps breaking the rules, it's like what they tried to nail Hillary Clinton on, the unauthorized server, Flynn did that too, that's how they got rid of Flynn at DIA, neither Flyn nor Clinton is stupid, but these sorts of people in these sorts of positions, they get cocky, they start to beleive that the rules don't apply to them, they do things that catch them in a jackpot, I mean, ultimate example is Richard Nixon, Richard Nixon was not a stupid man, and he was an extremely experienced poilitician, and he knew his enemies were out to get him, and yet Richard Nixon brought himself down, how? Why? Too Cocky; "if the President does it its legal".

Flynn is like that too.

Nixon was stupid on watergate. Cockiness alone does not explain his downfall. Nor would cockiness alone explain Flynn being caught dead to rights. Only next level stupidity, whether temporary or permanent, would explain Flynn being caught dead to rights. To say it outright, when that shit is on tape and to not wink and nudge, when you know there is a possibility that shit could come out in a worst case scenario? That's just fucking stupid bro, whether you are cocky while being a next level dumbass is beside the point.

[ssu]

Flynn might like to get around the rules but he had to know he was being listened to or that he could be listened in on and he would cover his ass accordingly by at least winking and nudging and not saying it outright. If he didn't think of that then he's one of the dumbest motherfuckers to ever be nominated for NSA. Chance of dead to rights is not that big unless you think Flynn is just straight up retarded. His ego might be huge, but is it that huge to blind him to that degree? Not buying that just yet.

Even if Trump did tell Flynn to do it, you got to think Trump was smart enough to not have that be anymore than Trump's word against Flynn's or he's one of the dumbest motherfuckers ever. Chances of either going down being caught dead to rights? It's possible but it really requires next levels of stupid to happen.

In the end it doesn't seem so outrageous: an incoming administration official telling what the incoming administration will do. And even if Flynn naturally understood that everything is going to be recorded, who cares, he would be in charge in a few days from then.
After all, the Trump campaign was in contact with the Russians. Even the Russians have come out to say that it is so. Only in hindsight it looks as a bad thing... when it came out to the public.

None of that has to mean that Flynn is caught dead to rights and there is rock solid proof Trump put him up to it though. It may not be a normal changing of the guard but some people are over blowing this thus far and it's not just the media.

Well, Spicer is surely making a big deal about it. So don't blame it's just the "fake news".

[Smitty-48]

Even if Trump did tell Flynn to do it, you got to think Trump was smart enough to not have that be anymore than Trump's word against Flynn's or he's one of the dumbest motherfuckers ever. Chances of either going down being caught dead to rights? It's possible but it really requires next levels of stupid to happen.

I don't think that's how it was, I don't think Trump thought it was illegal to quid pro quo with the Russians, I don't think Trump was thinking that they couldn't do this, and I don't think Trump was running this shit by his lawyers before he was telling Flynn to do it, I think Flynn knew it was sketchy, but Flynn loves to be the rebel, he loves to flaunt the rules, I think Flynn figured, fuck em, I know they're listening, so what? And besides, I have the President to back me up, I don't think Flynn thought that Trump would throw him under the bus for this, and moreover, they have apparently been dealing with the Russians for months, so it's not like Trump and Flynn weren't into the swing of things, playing fast and loose with the Russians, Trump and Flynn are the same about doing what they want to do, and then saying fuck em if they don't like it...

..until Trump was actually President, and things were not going that smoothly, and all of a sudden, the lawyers come to Trump and say "no, seriously, this is a jackpot, they could nail you on this, with a felony", at which point, it all suddenly comes rushing in, whoops, this is a problem, this shit needs to go away, and it needs to go away right now... emergency, emergency, save me, Pence, save me...