If Election Goes To The House?

[Martin Hash]

4 it is. Seems likely?

What do you think will stop the glider?

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Well, I'm a bit of an idealist, and don't view the court as a partisan political body.

Certs are rare for a reason, and (I believe) conservatives are less inclined to them than progressives.

The attempt to push lawsuits past states to SCOTUS seems more like a play to gum up the works until the 20th deadline than an attempt to prove actual fraud, so, not having personally read the PA lawsuit (and lacking the skills to decipher it), I imagine the thing that will stop the glider is conservative jurists deference to state court decisions.

[Martin Hash]

The PA suit is strong. Their Supreme Court overruled their legislature to allow mail-in ballots received after 8 pm to be counted, but only the legislature can Constitutionally decide that. PA is a win for Trump but it’s not enough. He needs to turn or discredit another State. The voting machines that only switched votes from Trump to Biden is the case in another State. That one requires the Republican legislature to perceive enough fraud to decline to certify.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

The ballots received after the deadline, or with unclear postmarks, were already sequestered from the current totals. So the PA courts could throw them out without changing the outcome in PA.

Trying to push it past the state courts is pointless, and I doubt SCOTUS will need to get involved since the state courts ruling wouldn't change the outcome either way, and that would be the only defensible reason to send the suit up the flagpole.

The fact that those contested ballots are already left out of current totals means having a pending lawsuit won't stop state certification of the vote.

The rest of the 85 pg lawsuit is mostly a question mark. there are about 14,000 contested ballots from a heavy dem county that wouldn't change the outcome if rejected, and a smattering of oversight access allegations that I don't have much of an opinion on.

[Martin Hash]

The fact that SCOTUS hasn’t got involved yet supports your position. I trust no news sources so I can’t say what other merits there are.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

All my info is the waaaay mainstream view of the merits, so there is certainly some shit I am not focusing on.

Still, an eventual President Pence outcome would, at least, prove that whoever is running this simulation is still trying to keep us on our toes.

[Martin Hash]

2.6 million ballots without signature verification as required by law should be thrown out is the claim in the suit.

[Martin Hash]

The WI claim is ballot box stuffing in 2 counties where the turnout exceeded ballot requests.

[Martin Hash]

Georgia is the voting machines flipping votes. They have a hand count going on now.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

In Georgia, I assume the canvass already caught and corrected any vote flipping, and the hand count is a double-check triggered by the razor-thin margins. It is unlikely to yield more than 10,000 errors missed by the canvass - but you never know.

Same in WI, where the canvass should have already corrected for ballot stuffing - which does happen fairly often, but rarely in amounts that would change more than a local candidates election. Ballot stuffing to the tune of 20,000 would require a level of fraud sophistication that, if the Dems were capable of it, one might expect them to use down ballot, instead of getting their asses handed to them in the house, senate, and governor races.

Intentionally losing down ballot to validate their presidential victory is a level of 4d chessifying that only one statesman in our history has ever been capable of.

As for the 2.6 mil - that is the total number of mail in ballots requested in PA. It is unclear to me if they are saying that some of them lacked signatures (which I believe is the contested 14,000, but am not at all certain), or if they are saying that the mail-in ballot is entirely unconstitutional. If they are really alleging all the mail-ins should be thrown out, that is going to be a tough case to get past state courts given the established law on voting by mail.

But then, I don't think finding fraud is the real strategy for Trump. Blocking certification before the 20th with a flood of questionable lawsuits is the winner - which gives us:



Sorry boy-o. 1-term Don either way.