Post
by Smitty-48 » Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:38 pm
China and India and Pakistan, this is exponentially worse ju-ju than America and Russia, the problem at this juncture is really more about nuclear contagion, from the batshit crazy Subcontinent.
The thing about America v. Russia; it's bipolar, when it comes to hydrogen bombs and delivery systems at least, it's basically symmetrical, and there is decades of stabilizing protocol built in from the Cold War, it's a stalemate, and it's a stable one, whereas on the Subcontinent, everything is new again, all the batshit crazy stuff from the unstable early Cold War, is kicking off down there now, and it's not symmetrical, India is much more powerful than Pakistan, and that makes Pakistan do crazy shit to try to offset its inherent weakness, but it's tripolar, so when Pakistan does crazy shit which sets India off, and then India responds, that just sets China off, then China eggs Pakistan on as a proxy, so there's an unstable circular escalation dynamic in play, which just keeps feeding on itself, getting more batshit cray-cray all the time as it goes.
Pakistan doesn't have strategic delivery systems, so what they are doing is loading up on tactical and intertheater weapons, and this is where the Americans and Soviets went in the 1980's, which got so scary, that it literally was too scary to have anymore, and both sides in the Cold War walked it back, because it was too destabilizing, but Pakistan doesn't have anything else in the nuclear quiver, this is all they got, so they just keep doubling down on tactical and intermediate, which is a powderkeg, so many more vectors for the genie to get out of the bottle.
They've reverse engineered the Tomahawk cruise missile now, so they are all INF all the time, and they are cranking out 100kt yield warheads for these GLCM's, like hot cakes, and INF comes in under the coverage, which, this puts India in the position of having to be on a hair trigger at all times, there's no time and space, there's no buffer zone, there's no warning zone, India is eyeball to eyeball with a Pakistani INF deterent which doesn't provide for any reaction time nor warning, but when India ups the ante to try to deter this, then that makes China escalate to counter India's hair trigger no notice deterent, while at the same time, the Chinese prop the Pakistani cray-cray up, because that forces the Indians to fight on two fronts, I mean, it's a mess, and its getting worse all the time.
It's like having a Cold War, with Anglo-America, France, and the Soviet Union, except all right on each other's borders, in a three way border dispute, eyeball to eyeball, with nothing to buffer in between them, it's all point blank, you don't even have 30 minutes to decide what to do in a crisis, it's more like 3 minutes, and that's not two way, that's three way, everybody backs against the wall at all times, and, everybody is deploying intermediate nuclear forces which are inherently designed to come in under the coverage in a preemptive strike. Bad. Ju. Ju.
Like, if you replaced Mexico with Pakistan, and Canada with China, then you have some idea as to what it's like to be India, and how much more tense they are, compared to America and Russia. Imagine if ISIS ran Mexico, and they had nuclear tipped cruise missiles in Jaurez, and from the other direction, instead of Canadian tourists, the People's Liberation Army of China; methinks America would be operating quite a bit closer to the brink then, no doubt, you'd be at DEFCON 3 leaning towards DEFCON 2, twenty four seven three six five, and that's pretty much how it is for India.
India doesn't have a "DEFCON 4" and "DEFCON 5", and they can't even be too confortable at "DEFCON 3", because there is never enough time and space, to ever stand down that far, when you are eyeball to eyeball with it, backs against the wall at all times, and at least one of your adversaries is Islamic Jihadist cray-cray, and the other is none too sensible neither, even if not as cray-cray.
Nec Aspera Terrent
