Poker Has Fallen

[Smitty-48]

There's no trigger, as I always say, it's like a gravity well, once you get caught in it, you are going to go over, the question simply becomes, will it be by mutual countervalue exchange, or preemptive counterforce?

That decision... is that President Terminator Watson or Smitty LeMay making it?

The decision has already been made, these trains gonna run on time, the deterent is designed to retaliate autonomously, if you wait for a launch on warning scenario, then it will be mutual countervalue exchange, your only other option is to lean into it, and go first, with the counterforce, one way or the other, you're going, it's just a matter of how you wanna go.

Nobody is going to start a nuclear war intentionally, the only way you're going to get to the gravity well, is my misapprension, miscalculation and/or mistake, but once you're there, rational arbitrage ain't gonna get you to escape velocity, the only rational arbitrage left at the brink, is lesser of two evils, at which point, ol' Smitty LeMay gonna need that AI to give him them coordinates for them mobile ICBMs; see how that works?

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

There's no trigger, as I always say, it's like a gravity well, once you get caught in it, you are going to go over, the question simply becomes, will it be by mutual countervalue exchange, or preemptive counterforce?

That decision... is that President Terminator Watson or Smitty LeMay making it?

The decision has already been made, these trains gonna run on time, the deterent is designed to retaliate autonomously, if you wait for a launch on warning scenario, then it will be mutual countervalue exchange, your only other option is to lean into it, and go first, with the counterforce, one way or the other, you're going, it's just a matter of how you wanna go.

Nobody is going to start a nuclear war intentionally, the only way you're going to get to the gravity well, is my misapprension, miscalculation and/or mistake, but once you're there, rational arbitrage ain't gonna get you to escape velocity, the only rational arbitrage left at the brink, is lesser of two evils, at which point, ol' Smitty LeMay gonna need that AI to give him them coordinates for them mobile ICBMs; see how that works?

It sounds like you are talking about a regular old number crunching computer assisting with tactics. The impression I got from the article was an AI that was capable of making, essentially, independent military decisions that could lead up and in to the gravity well.

An AI that we believe is incapable of misapprehension, miscalculation, or mistake might start telling us we are already well and good across the Rubicon, but if it is telling us this based on its own experience machine learning, we just got a magic black box spitting out nuclear war.

[Smitty-48]

No, I need more than the numbers, that don't give me enough, I need the behavior, the AI combines the number crunching, with synthetic intuition, we're talking a nuclear counterforce here, I need to be 99% before it's a go, and in order to get to 99%, the AI needs to read the adversaries behavior over time, to build up an intuition as to what he is going to do, the numbers only get you so far, to close the loop to 99%, I need the AI to give me its hunch, a very, very, very advised guess.

That's the thing about the poker playing AI; counting cards only tells you so much, the next level is, reading the behavior to spot the bluff. Put enough computing power to it, the AI is going to be able to guess what you're going to do, before you even know, with uncanny accuracy.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Well, I guess humans have been making military decisions based on the fevered mutterings of oracles for about as long as we've been around... might as well make it iOracle.

“People have this idea that poker is a very human game and that bots can’t bluff, for example. That’s totally wrong. It’s not about reading your opponent and trying to tell if they are lying, it’s about the cards and probabilities,”

(from OP)

I am still unclear if we are building a synthetic, intuitive oracle, or just having faith that a number cruncher will give us an oracle's wisdom. And I am not exactly sure which I think is worse.

[Smitty-48]

Well, I guess humans have been making military decisions based on the fevered mutterings of oracles for about as long as we've been around... might as well make it iOracle.

No more oracle than Ultra breaking the Enigma, it's just an exponentially more capable iteration of that, with synthetic intuition, to take it one step further, not just crack the code, but analyze the pattern of behavior, to get inside the heads of the U-boat captains, to guess where they are going to be, with better than 99% accuracy.

There's only so many variations that Ivan can come up with, those variables can be calculated by a computer, but within the variables, Ivan will have a pattern of behavior, he won't even realize it, a human could not spot it, to Ivan, and any other human, it will appear to be random, human intuition would not be able to read the pattern accurately, but an AI could, just set that AI up, to watch Ivan, watch him all the time, everything he does, where he does it, when he does it, why he does it, and over time, the AI will be able to know what variation Ivan is going to choose, before Ivan even knows.

The AI would be able to say; "it's Tuesday, 31 January, the weather is this and that, and taking into account these other factors here and whatnot, my synthetic intuition tells me that Ivan has parked his mobile ICBM's here, here, here, here, and here" ; and it will be 99% accurate.

If you have the time, you verify on those tightly narrowed search areas, but even if you don't have time, you could shoot blind, and still be 99% accurate.

Now, obviously, there are many military applications for this sort of AI, you can fight insurgents with it too, but start with the worse case scenario, preemptive counterforce; the holy grail.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Now the AI tells you, not only has Ivan placed his ICBM's at these locations, but is 99% sure that he is getting ready to use them, and your first strike window is closing.

The AI has arrived at this conclusion through running trillions of war game scenarios that we haven't been watching, and thus has reasons for arriving at this conclusion that are opaque to a human brain.

Does having this oracle make a nuclear exchange more or less likely in your opinion?

[Smitty-48]

Now the AI tells you, not only has Ivan placed his ICBM's at these locations, but is 99% sure that he is getting ready to use them, and your first strike window is closing.

The AI has arrived at this conclusion through running trillions of war game scenarios that we haven't been watching, and thus has reasons for arriving at this conclusion that are opaque to a human brain.

Indeed, now you're getting it, this is how AI will work, it will be sucking data from everywhere, like fuckin' Skynet, every single data point in the world will be running through its synthetic intuition, and then it will make a recomendation, and update that in real time as you go, constantly tweaking the variables for you, in an easy to understand visualization of your options, ultimate sensor fusion engine.

Does having this oracle make a nuclear exchange more or less likely in your opinion?

I see that as a political issue, but having the AI advising you, in real time, would probably assist you in avoiding misapprension, miscalculation and/or mistake in the first place, so less likely to get to the brink in the first place.

[Smitty-48]

The way computing is going, it's not going to be too long, before you would be far safer to simply turn all the decisions over to the AI, rather than rely on men in the loop, and it would only be psychology and politics which would prevent you from doing so.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

The way computing is going, it's not going to be too long, before you would be far safer to simply turn all the decisions over to the AI, rather than rely on men in the loop, and it would only be psychology and politics which would prevent you from doing so.

-said the man who owned shares in Cyberdyne Systems.

[Smitty-48]

The way computing is going, it's not going to be too long, before you would be far safer to simply turn all the decisions over to the AI, rather than rely on men in the loop, and it would only be psychology and politics which would prevent you from doing so.

-said the man who owned shares in Cyberdyne Systems.

That dystopic view of AI will go away eventually, that will die off, future generations will be living in the Culture, with AI's running everything, and it won't bother them at all, in fact, they will probably freak out when they don't have an AI running things for them, heck, Millenials freak out already if you take their smart phones away; more to come.