Our Guy Flynn

[Speaker to Animals]

We just want Russia to invade Finland so you stop posting. After that we might get tough on Russia, but Finland stays in the Motherland.

[ssu]

We just want Russia to invade Finland so you stop posting. After that we might get tough on Russia, but Finland stays in the Motherland.

Again your pipe dream. We aren't part of NATO, just like Sweden, remember, just the way Russia wants.

Russia and Trump ending their honeymoon sometime in the future, sooner or later, is as probable and easy to forcast as that there would be demonstrations if Trump would win by the left.

[adwinistrator]

We just want Russia to invade Finland so you stop posting. After that we might get tough on Russia, but Finland stays in the Motherland.

Again your pipe dream. We aren't part of NATO, just like Sweden, remember, just the way Russia wants.

Russia and Trump ending their honeymoon sometime in the future, sooner or later, is as probable and easy to forcast as that there would be demonstrations if Trump would win by the left.

If President Trump's policy decisions lower the price of oil, then Russia's ability to recover their reverse fund will decline. This is what I think will be the point of contention between US and Russia, we'll see how it shakes out.

[Smitty-48]

We just want Russia to invade Finland so you stop posting. After that we might get tough on Russia, but Finland stays in the Motherland.

Again your pipe dream. We aren't part of NATO, just like Sweden, remember, just the way Russia wants.

Russia and Trump ending their honeymoon sometime in the future, sooner or later, is as probable and easy to forcast as that there would be demonstrations if Trump would win by the left.

If President Trump's policy decisions lower the price of oil, then Russia's ability to recover their reverse fund will decline. This is what I think will be the point of contention between US and Russia, we'll see how it shakes out.

If the price of oil is down, that would only be because the US economy is down, Trump's stated policy is to jumpstart the American economy, which would cause the price of oil to go up, not down.

If America is doing well, then Russia will do well by default, the only way Russia would be suffering in a low oil price environment, is if America is suffering in a low oil price environment.

[ssu]

If America is doing well, then Russia will do well by default, the only way Russia would be suffering in a low oil price environment, is if America is suffering in a low oil price environment.

Or if Trump will start bombing Iran and halts it's oil exports with a blockade. That would raise the oil prices, which actually would be good for American/Canadian shale oil/tar sands projects.

I'm not sure, but I think there still isn't a pipeline linkin Iran with China.

[Smitty-48]

If America is doing well, then Russia will do well by default, the only way Russia would be suffering in a low oil price environment, is if America is suffering in a low oil price environment.

Or if Trump will start bombing Iran and halts it's oil exports with a blockade. That would raise the oil prices, which actually would be good for American/Canadian shale oil/tar sands projects.

Oh hells yeah, make it rain, Big Daddy Trump, Blue Eyed Shee-iks ya'll, woot-woot!

Sic that F-35 on them Aye-ranians too, Lockmart needs a firepower demonstration, shawk and awwww!

[adwinistrator]

Again your pipe dream. We aren't part of NATO, just like Sweden, remember, just the way Russia wants.

Russia and Trump ending their honeymoon sometime in the future, sooner or later, is as probable and easy to forcast as that there would be demonstrations if Trump would win by the left.

If President Trump's policy decisions lower the price of oil, then Russia's ability to recover their reverse fund will decline. This is what I think will be the point of contention between US and Russia, we'll see how it shakes out.

If the price of oil is down, that would only be because the US economy is down, Trump's stated policy is to jumpstart the American economy, which would cause the price of oil to go up, not down.

If America is doing well, then Russia will do well by default, the only way Russia would be suffering in a low oil price environment, is if America is suffering in a low oil price environment.

I'm not sure what you're basing the statement that "oil price down = US economy down".

For anyone interested in understanding the causes of the 2014-2016 oil price drop, the current recovery, and the long term forecast, I'll write out a simplified but thorough explanation.

The price of oil dropped from over $100/barrel in 2014 to $50/barrel today, with a low of $26/barrel last February.

The main causes of these changes were:

• Decreased demand
• Oversupply
• Strong US dollar exchange

Decreased demand was contributed to weakened economies in Europe, China, and many developing countries. US imports dropped substantially due to increased production via shale drilling (fracking) to the point that US net oil production surpassed net imports.

Oversupply was caused by a few factors. The global oil market is much more diversified, and no single producer or group can reduce supply to raise prices, without losing market share. This is mainly due to the increase in US oil production. Before the price drop, high prices made US shale oil profitable. Between 2009 and 2014, global crude oil supply increased by almost 5 million barrels per day, 3.3 million barrels of which came from the US. OPEC decided not to cut production in 2014 as prices began to drop, adding additional downward pressure to the price of oil. The Iran deal allowed Iranian oil exports on the market, adding further downward pressure.

While supply and demand were already set to reduce oil prices, a strong US dollar increased this downward pressure. The Euro was remaining weak against the US dollar, and China devalued their currency amidst their decreased economic growth. In this case, the US dollar helped push prices down, but at some point the low oil price contributed to an even stronger US dollar.

The strength of the US dollar vs other major currencies is integral to the oil market, which is traded in US dollars. A very simplified way to think about "US dollar strength" is that it has 3 main factors: US economy (exports vs. imports, monetary policy, etc.) vs. global economy (other major currencies doing better or worse) vs. Oil/Gold prices (supply/demand). There's a lot of academic debate, but basically, a strong US dollar can push oil prices down, and dropping oil prices can push up US dollar strength.

The oil prices hit their low early last year ($26/barrel in Feb 2016), and have been steadily increasing to today (~$50/barrel).

This is due to:

• OPEC agreeing to major production cuts in Nov 2016 (-1.8M barrels/day until May 2017).
• Higher demand caused by stronger global economic growth, higher vehicle sales and colder than expected weather in Q4 2016.
• Decreased US shale oil production caused by low oil prices.

Does this mean that prices are going back to $100/barrel? Not likely.

Bringing the price of oil from $26/barrel to $52/barrel was enough to increase active US oil rigs from 439 to 591. You can expect to see OPEC production cuts also ease along the same proportion.

U.S. crude stockpiles swelled in January to nearly 200 million barrels above their five-year average, according to the OPEC report.
"This vast increase in inventories is a result of a strong supply response from the U.S. shale producers, who were not involved in the OPEC agreement and who have instead been using the resultant price rally to increase output," said Fiona Cincotta, an analyst at City Index.

To bring this back around to the point I was making: I expect President Trump will want to support the US oil industry's efforts to be competitive in this market and continue increasing production while it remains profitable. Unless this is offset by purposefully weakening the US dollar, or a strong global economic growth in Europe and China, this will keep oil prices around or below $50/barrel.

If oil prices reach $60-80/barrel, Russia will have a much easier time reinvesting in it's depleted national reserve fund. Their economic minister has stated that $55/barrel is good enough to make progress, but that's probably an optimistic view, and they would obviously want a higher price.

Sources:

1. MarketWatch. 5 year U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
2. Ivana Kottasova. "Oil prices have doubled in a year. Here's why" (2/13/17). CNN Money.
3. Ivana Kottasova. "The global oil surplus will disappear in 2017" (12/13/16). CNN Money.
4. Investopedia. "4 Reasons Why the Price of Crude Oil Dropped" (10/22/15).
5. Mike Scott. "What’s Driving the Plunge in Oil Prices" (12/22/15). Fortune: Finance.
6. Knowledge@Wharton. "Beyond the Gas Pump: A New World Order for Oil" (1/22/15). The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
7. Knowledge@Wharton. "What a Robust Dollar Means for U.S. Business - and the Global Economy" (4/15/15). The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
8. Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors. "Here's What A Strong Dollar Does To Oil And Gold Prices" (10/22/15). Business Insider
9. Martin Feldstein. "The Dollar and the Price of Oil" (2008). Project Syndicate, Harvard University Department of Economics.

[Smitty-48]

tl;dr

BUMP

Thank you, President Trump, for allowing us to spurt our dirty oil up America's pristine ass crack with our fat salty pipeline cock, Canada First!

Save the Canadian rainforest, spill that oil in the Dakota's, woot-woot!

[3knuckleshuffle]

Any bets if trump cucks out and gets rid of Flynn over this garbage?

[kybkh]

I am going to say no. Flynn is too valuable an asset for Trump right now in this fight against the CIA.

Don't forget those SEALS flying the Trump colors. That has as much to do with Flynn as Trump

Seems you got one of two situations either the Red Team has the goods and are trying to set the Trump admin up for an ambush or it's just another bullshit sandwich the media is to attack the Trump WH with.