2020 election

[StCapps]

No Trump or Obama in the 2020 Dem Primaries, predictions that assume there is one will be shown to be nothing but wishful thinking by someone who misread the animal entrails of 2016.

[Speaker to Animals]

We do not know the winner of this election. In 2024 you will be saying the same fucking thing, and I will post the graph from this 2020 election, and you will be like but there's no <2020 winner> in this election!!!

The poll numbers this early mean fuck all. Give it up already. How many people have to try to explain this to you and for how many fucking decades before it sinks in?

[StCapps]

We do not know the winner of this election. In 2024 you will be saying the same fucking thing, and I will post the graph from this 2020 election, and you will be like but there's no <2020 winner> in this election!!!

No in 2024, I will be saying the likelihood of a Trump or Obama type figure running is higher, because there is no incumbent buzzsaw to run against.

You are using examples for non-incumbent POTUS election years, and not examples where there is an incumbent POTUS, the dynamic changes completely in that scenario, comparing the two is comparing apples and oranges.

Two examples you could be using are Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, but in those examples they ran against an incumbent with a bad economy and they were infinitely more skilled politicians than Biden's primary competition in 2020.

McGovern, Reagan, Mondale, Clinton, Dole, Kerry and Romney are the pool of examples of candidate who ran against elected incumbent POTUS's, since the 1972 primary change
Two are obvious exceptions, Clinton and Reagan.
Four are establishment types, Mondale, Dole, Kerry and Romney.
One is a far-left type, McGovern.

That's a one in seven chance of someone like Biden getting knocked off by someone like McGovern in a field this weak, which is your prediction. There is a four in five chance of someone like Biden beating someone like McGovern when a future two-term POTUS isn't running, which is my prediction.

[C-Mag]

Tonight is going to be high on pearl clutching...……….. all racism all the time.

[C-Mag]

Yang: DNC boning the Yang Gang to keep me out of the debates in September
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ssion=true

[clubgop]

What to watch for, the media will try to revive Russia, Russia, Russia, and Mueller sainthood, candidates will not want any part of that and they will dance around if not totally avoid the questions.

[clubgop]

Less of a recovery, more of a stopping the bleeding.

Before the first debate, Biden was at 32.0% on aggregate, right now he's at 31.3%.

That ain't just stopping the bleeding, in total he's lost 0.7% of his support from before the first debate, that ain't even bleeding, that a negligible difference.

Biden's lead over the rest of the field has slightly increased since the first debate.

The damage Kamala Harris did was entirely temporary, despite hopes from folks on this forum that it was the beginning of the end for Biden.

Wishful Thinking is a helluva drug.

Polls are still a name recognition exercise at this point. No one is paying attention. The attacks are out in the ether. They have a weakening effect, especially for frontrunners. Biden's inevitability looks like JEB!

[pineapplemike]

biden still feels vulnerable to me, i expect another weak debate performance from him. i dont think democrats will be satisfied with a spotty old man for the long haul, i still think kamala gets the nom but i'm not staking my life on it like some here are

[C-Mag]

biden still feels vulnerable to me, i expect another weak debate performance from him. i dont think democrats will be satisfied with a spotty old man for the long haul, i still think kamala gets the nom but i'm not staking my life on it like some here are

I agree. But St Capps has a lot right. He's proven to have more staying power already than I expected. It's hard to read for me as I view the entire field as extremely weak. Tulsi and Yang are the only ones that show real leadership.

[StCapps]

Less of a recovery, more of a stopping the bleeding.

Before the first debate, Biden was at 32.0% on aggregate, right now he's at 31.3%.

That ain't just stopping the bleeding, in total he's lost 0.7% of his support from before the first debate, that ain't even bleeding, that a negligible difference.

Biden's lead over the rest of the field has slightly increased since the first debate.

The damage Kamala Harris did was entirely temporary, despite hopes from folks on this forum that it was the beginning of the end for Biden.

Wishful Thinking is a helluva drug.

Polls are still a name recognition exercise at this point. No one is paying attention. The attacks are out in the ether. They have a weakening effect, especially for frontrunners. Biden's inevitability looks like JEB!

Biden doesn't inevitably looks like Romney after Rick Perry fell off, except this Democrat field is so weak there was never a Rick Perry.