Meanwhile in Ukraine

[Smitty-48]

the Russians are very poor in every aspect of warfighting here

at the tactical level it is unmotivated conscripts caught in a fiasco

at the operational level it is very poorly planned & executed by their staffs

and at the strategic level it is a catastrophe for Russia, with no clear exit strategy

so heavy causalities on the Russian side is very plausible

[Smitty-48]

there are reports that the Russians lost 8 combat aircraft in one day, mix of fixed wing & helicopters

but the Germans have shipped the Ukrainians 500 x FIM-92 Stinger

with that sort of MANPAD threat down low, the reports of Russian air attrition are believable

[C-Mag]

This Twitter ad for Ukraine is pretty well done. Who wouldn't want to fight along side this ?
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/ ... ou-down%2F

But if you take a step back and look, it's clearly orchestrated.
They are all posed, hell looks like an Avengers Poster.
The speech is being read off cue cards or a teleprompter.
The Ukraine flag in the background.
The words and use of inflection.

It's very well done, looks professional.

[Smitty-48]

and again, these are not 1980's Stinger's

these would be NATO STANAG FIM-92J Block II

that's a hornet's nest for the Russian pilots, they don't have PGM's, so they have to fly low

[Smitty-48]

and like Hastur just said, and like I said before the operation commenced

the Raputitsa is here

March is spring mud season

that's why the Russians are on the roads

they can't get off the roads, they will just get stuck in the mud if they go into the fields

so the Ukrainians are taking them from the flanks, dismounted, with Javelin & NLAW

[Smitty-48]

the Russians don't actually control the areas they have driven into

like in Kherson, that's the VDV

7th Guards Air Assault Mountain Division

and there are BMD Airborne Fighting Vehicles wrecked all over the roads

they are getting hit from the treeline, probably by NLAW within 600 meters

[C-Mag]

One thing about this is, that if the Ukrainians are this successful and damaging to Russia. There is no reason for NATO or the EU to get involved. Just fight the proxy war, Cold War style, avoid MAD.

[Smitty-48]

this is where NLAW is even deadlier than Javelin

Javelin takes 30 second to warm up

it needs some clearance to fly up above the target

NLAW is better for close quarters

it's point & click, and can be fired from anywhere, including from inside a room in a building

[Smitty-48]

Just fight the proxy war, Cold War style, avoid MAD.

this is not Vietnam

this is the central front

this could easily escalate to a strategic confrontation against the CONUS

this is not an attack against Ukraine, this is an attack against America, worldwide

Balance of Terror

[Smitty-48]

it is obviously difficult to get any OSINT on submarine operations at all

but there is no way the Russians can be doing this without a strategic component

we are already at war with them now, under the sea

again, I would guess at DEFCON 3 right now