Poking the Bear Again

[SuburbanFarmer]

Well gee, I’d sure love to see my family die over a port in Ukraine and Biden’s corrupt ass taking money from them.

[Smitty-48]

Either way, I am in to rolling some boats into the Black Sea - but I think the Russians will back down before going full black-glass. This is just an opinion, no evidence whatsoever to support it.

Call it an article of faith.

I think Washington suffers from the same delusions of control, which is what makes a war plausible

nobody starts a war like this on purpose, whenever it comes, it will be by brinkmanship & miscalculation

whether this is the event that incites that war, I'm not expecting that

but each you time you go to this well, it becomes plausible

I certainly don't have any faith in the Biden Administration, I think they are literally fucking crazy

I have more faith in Putin, but he is sending very clear strategic warning at the brink of war, right now

the Russians are not going to back down because they are backs against the wall

America is the party who has to back down to avoid war

the question then becomes, how delusional is the imperial hubris in Washington ?

the reason I am not expecting war, is that I calculate that the Biden Administration is bluffing and will back down

at the same time, this Administration is so weak that it fills them with a desperation to look tough

the Administration has the wagons circled, they are paranoid

so that's how miscalculation happens

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Either way, I am in to rolling some boats into the Black Sea - but I think the Russians will back down before going full black-glass. This is just an opinion, no evidence whatsoever to support it.

Call it an article of faith.

I think Washington suffers from the same delusions of control, which is what makes a war plausible

nobody starts a war like this on purpose, whenever it comes, it will be by brinkmanship & miscalculation

whether this is the event that incites that war, I'm not expecting that

but each you time you go to this well, it becomes plausible

I certainly don't have any faith in the Biden Administration, I think they are literally fucking crazy

I have more faith in Putin, but he is sending very clear strategic warning at the brink of war, right now

the Russians are not going to back down because they are backs against the wall

America is the party who has to back down to avoid war

the question then becomes, how delusional is the imperial hubris in Washington ?

To be perfectly honest, I'm just glad it isn't my decision to make - because I am not crazy and don't think I have the stomach for nuclear brinkmanship.

At the same time, I don't think doing nothing is really an option either.

We can probably putter around in the Black Sea for a minute - just to say 'fuck around and find out.' I'm assuming that is the whole point of this.

Of course, given Biden's FDR delusions, maybe he has gone wobbly in the brain and is trying to start WWIII.

[Smitty-48]

Either way, I am in to rolling some boats into the Black Sea - but I think the Russians will back down before going full black-glass. This is just an opinion, no evidence whatsoever to support it.

Call it an article of faith.

I think Washington suffers from the same delusions of control, which is what makes a war plausible

nobody starts a war like this on purpose, whenever it comes, it will be by brinkmanship & miscalculation

whether this is the event that incites that war, I'm not expecting that

but each you time you go to this well, it becomes plausible

I certainly don't have any faith in the Biden Administration, I think they are literally fucking crazy

I have more faith in Putin, but he is sending very clear strategic warning at the brink of war, right now

the Russians are not going to back down because they are backs against the wall

America is the party who has to back down to avoid war

the question then becomes, how delusional is the imperial hubris in Washington ?

To be perfectly honest, I'm just glad it isn't my decision to make - because I am not crazy and don't think I have the stomach for nuclear brinkmanship.

At the same time, I don't think doing nothing is really an option either.

We can probably putter around in the Black Sea for a minute - just to say 'fuck around and find out.' I'm assuming that is the whole point of this.

Of course, given Biden's FDR delusions, maybe he has gone wobbly in the brain and is trying to start WWIII.

there is an agreement on the table right now, the Minsk Agreement

the agreement is that the status quo should be maintained

so it is actually the Biden Administration which is actively stirring this up

Ukraine doesn't even want to fight, they are rightly terrified of the Russians

but their financial support from Washington is being leveraged to make them fight

Obama started this, nobody else but Obama went on the offensive in Ukraine, against the advice of Europe

now all of Obama's people are back at it again, except without Obama to direct the operation

[Smitty-48]

that is the position of the French & Germans

they already hashed out an agreement with the Russians to stabilize the situation

now the Biden Administration is violating the terms of that agreement, Washington is on the offensive here

see, Ukraine was Obama's big mistake, his big miscalculation, Susan Rice & Co played with fire and got burned

Trump didn't care, it wasn't his mistake, wasn't his issue, he was happy with the Minsk Agreement status quo

but now Susan Rice & Co are back, trying to reverse their previous mistake by doubling down

don't be naive in thinking that the Obamacons are satisfied with the status quo, they are not

this is an ongoing regime change operation, they are trying to bring Putin down

this is why Belarus is more central than Ukraine

the Obamacon's method is Velvet Revolution

they flip the Russian proxies one at a time, in Georgia, in Ukraine, in Armenia, in Belarus, etcetera

they already flipped Ukraine, next up on the list is Belarus

the final Velvet Revolution is scheduled to be in Moscow at some point, ringed around the Kremlin

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Obviously, Putin is happy with the status quo (a term I am tempted to put in scare quotes - but I won't, 'cause I'm classy like that).

The OSCE can kiss my non-binding ass. The Obamacon strategy doesn't bother me.

[Smitty-48]

there are two other wildcard third parties in play, outside of the control of Washington, but both in NATO

one is Poland, who are actively trying to effect a regime change in Belarus by Velvet Revolution

the other is the Turks, who are actively trying to take the South Caucasus from Russia

what happened in Nagorno-Karaback recently was that Armenia had a Velvet Revolution against Putin

then Erdogan launched an attack on the Russians by way of Turkey's proxy Azerbaijan

[Smitty-48]

The OSCE can kiss my non-binding ass. The Obamacon strategy doesn't bother me.

welcome to the Neoconservative camp, congratulations, you are now a Cold Warrior

as I an old school Cold Warrior myself, I simply caution against half measures

if you are going to do this, it has to be as Dutch Reagan did it in 1981, no ambiguity, full court press

Eagle with thunderbolts in talons grasped, no wriggle room for miscalculation on the Russians part

warm it all up, start deploying it to theatre en masse

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

S'good advice.

Half-measures are just so tempting, though. Like having your cake and eating it.

But, again, for some reason I can't fathom, DC doesn't come to me for council on foreign policy.

[Smitty-48]

S'good advice.

Half-measures are just so tempting, though. Like having your cake and eating it.

But, again, for some reason I can't fathom, DC doesn't come to me for council on foreign policy.

remember it is the Balance of Terror

you don't want to take the tiger by the tail

if you are going to confront the Kremlin, you have to make sure there is no slack in that

the most dangerous thing is to pick a fight which you are not prepared for

if you are going to pick a fight with nuclear weapons, you need to go all the way, overwhelming superioty

peace through strength