THE ERA OF TRUMP

[ssu]

But Trump might just not keep Russin in check but focus on China. Why because of jobs and the fact that Putin is basically an old business buddy. Trump has no international policy nor experience so this might be a disaster waiting to happen.

So you mean that he (Trump) would make exactly the same mistakes Bush and then Obama made?

Of course thats possible, Penner, totaly possible...

And if people favourable to Russia get elected in the European elections, the Grand Slam win is possible for Putin: get Crimea, even officially, not just de facto. Or similar things. And then have a opening to take the next step.

OK Penner, let's think of the worst possible scenario:

Putin puts his intelligence services to work on Italy, France & Germany and in the end the EU is in ruins. Then when it's not only Trump, but some European leaders favourable of lifting the sanctions, Putin could purpose a peace-deal in the Eastern Ukraine alongside co-operation in Syria, with the price being lifting the sanctions and some kind of acceptance from the West about Crimea. Or perhaps a promise that NATO won't enlarge itself. Hooray, Trump thinks he's got a great deal. Everything looks so nice and fantastic.

After that the Eastern NATO members would be just devastated, willing to Finlandize, as they would see where the wind is blowing. But now for the Bear grab, just like before with Dubya and Obama:

Make noise that the Balts are trampling the human rights of the ethnic Russian minority. That fascism and bigotry is rampant in the Baltic States, just a concentrated smear campaign about the Baltic States. It's a minority issue, human rights for God's Sake!!! Then something like a bombing of an ethnic Russian pub would do it. Attacks on the Russian minority. The Russian minority, fearing for themselves, start to arm themselves, willing to defend their rights. In this tense situation, Russia cannot stand idly by when fellow Russians are in danger. The whole conflict is portrayed as an internal crisis in the Baltic States, nothing to do with Article V whatsoever. Then Russia purpose to send peacekeepers to the country, it cannot trust anymore the Baltic authorities, who are totally uncapable of protecting their Russian citizens, perhaps even assisting in the attacks. And a multinational force would do naturally, if you have a friendly France or a friendly Italy, they could commit peacekeepers also. How can it be an attack then? It's just peacekeeping.

If the Balts cave in, accept the "human rights" that "the Russian minority" wants, for example give ethnic Russians Russian passports, game over. Then there's a lot of Russian citizens that Russia can claim to defend, just like any other country would do. Hence the Baltics would be under a tight grip of Russia. NATO? Useless organization, nobody gives any credit to it. No action, talk only.

NATO neutralized. A Hybrid warfare win.

No WW3, we are just peacekeeping!


Heck, why wouldn't the "Little Green Men" wear just these berets when invad...no, assisting a NATO country with it's internal problems?

(Of course not in desert fatigues, as the Baltics is Forest country.)

[Smitty-48]

What do the American people care about NATO? Whatever threat Russia might pose to the United States, it's not going to be overrunning Western Europe with Communism, so who cares?

[ssu]

Not actually easy for countries to acquire weapons grade plutonium in sufficient quantities to build a nuclear deterrent of any particular utility. In order to deter a nuclear superpower, you would require thermonuclear weapons, deployed in depth, en masse, with survivable second strike capability.

And you forget the most important aspect of this. There isn't simply the will to have a nuclear program for these countries. Nukes are bad, remember? The only European country I think with the right kind of manipulative leaders to sell the idea would be Poland. Yet even that still doesn't make sense.

The only thing I could see is that to some Poland the US would deploy it's old free fall nukes (and the Poles would make their F-16s to carry the nukes). Not in a military sense much of a thing, only a political gesture to reassure the Poles about US commitment.

What do the American people care about NATO? Whatever threat Russia might pose to the United States, it's not going to be overrunning Western Europe with Communism, so who cares?

Smitty, in the end they will care about being a Superpower. You think Americans want to be a bunch Weak Dicks? The guys who lost their position as the only Superpower?


You really think the US will give Russia the dominant role in Europe on a Silver platter?

[Smitty-48]

America is a Mahanian Eternal Seapower, the strategy against the land powers is containment, the operational aspect is Air-Sea Battle, America can deal with Russia by building bombers and submarines, and dominating the high ground in space, there's nothing of strategic interest to America in Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe is entirely expendable, all those states were beyond the Iron Curtain, when America was the most dominant Superpower in history; didn't crimp their style one bit.

100 Stealth Bombers + 100 Nuclear Submarines = Problem Solved.

Where America has a Russia problem, it is in the thermonuclear threat spectrum, thus, America should focus its Counter-Russia efforts, on B-21 and SSBN-X. Fuck Latvia.

[ssu]

America is a Mahanian Eternal Seapower, the strategy against the land powers is containment, the operational aspect is Air-Sea Battle, America can deal with Russia by building bombers and submarines, and dominating the high ground in space, there's nothing of strategic interest to America in Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe is entirely expendable, all those states were beyond the Iron Curtain, when America was the most dominant Superpower in history; didn't crimp their style one bit.

100 Stealth Bombers + 100 Nuclear Submarines = Problem Solved.

Where America has a Russia problem, is in the thermonuclear threat spectrum, thus, America should focus its Counter-Russia efforts, on B-21 and SSBN-X.

It can have 200 Stealth Bomber + 200 Nuclear Submarines, but if it cannot influence Europe as it has and if European countries listen more to the Kremlin, the amount of nukes isn't the answer. Then the US shrinks from the Superpower status more to a Great Power status.

Fight your enemy where he is weak, not on field where he is strong. Russians know that.

[Smitty-48]

If the Europeans fall under the spell of the Kremlin, that would only incite a greater flight to quality to the United States, advantage America again, advantage Canada therein, bring it on.

If the Europeans want to be Russia's bum boys, so be it; watch the financial and economic interests flee the basket case kleptocracy that ensues therein, to the rule of law here in North America.

Russia is a cancer, if Europe gets Russia cancer, then America is the cure, the rule of law is the ring of power, not the rule of gangsters.

All Americans are bound to do, is defend and uphold the Constitution of the United States of America, I've read it from beginning to end, not once does it mention Latvia.

Americans don't even like Europe, the fact that the Europeans would even for a second consider becoming a proxy of those lawless hooligans in the Kremlin, is no reason to like them any more, and certainly no reason to come running to their defence, quite the opposite in fact.

If Europe won't even lift a finger to defend themselves from a bunch of two bit gangsters in the Kremlin, then apparently, Europe is a write off, and so good riddance.

[ssu]

All Americans are bound to do, is defend and uphold the Constitution of the United States of America, I've read it from beginning to end, not once does it mention Latvia.

It doesn't mention Israel either. Or Canada.

If Europe won't even lift a finger to defend themselves from a bunch of two bit gangsters in the Kremlin, then apparently, Europe is a write off, and so good riddance.

Well, it looks like Trump's USA won't be leaving Europe. Hence I think that sooner or later, the honeymoon with Russia will be over.

Just worth wile seeing if it will be for the third time like it has been: new US president wants to put back the differences, start with a clear table, improve relations. Then Russia, sooner or later, finds something it doesn't agree with and acts decisively without caring a shit about the US and it's response. And then there's the talk of "New Cold War" again with hell freezing over and the US administration finding Putin untrustworthy.

If it goes like that for the third time...

[Smitty-48]

It doesn't mention Israel either. Or Canada.

The only Bolshevist threat to Canada now, is not from the Kremlin in Moscow, it's from the CBC broadcast centre in Toronto, if I want to liberate a country from the world socialist revolution, I don't have to go to Latvia. If I wanted to shoot me some Commies, I don't even have to go any further than my local city council.

The only threats to Canada, are domestic, there is no overseas conventional military threat to Canada, whatsoever, to say that the Russians are threatening Canada, is too silly to even bother rebutting, the only Red Scare here, is the Liberals.

There's a new cold war alright, ssu, but it's right here at home, against the leftist Envirobolsheviks and their proxies in the public sector media, if we're going to roll out in the tanks, that's who we should be crushing under the treads.

[K@th]

The fact that some people even think that is a possibility just goes to show how irrational people can be.

You're a big fan of saying that we shouldn't listen when Trump speaks, because he doesn't mean it. Are you Trump's official translator? What exactly did he mean when he said he'd blow the shit out of the ME?

[Cid]

but shitfaced Nixon during the cold war is way worse than stone cold sober Trump with the codes.

Why is Trump with the nuclear codes so scary?

I apologize for not conveying my feeling better. He's not. He's scary in the, "Wooo Crazy Ike... Err... Trump what's he gonna do?"

I don't even think he'll start testing nuclear weapons to fuck with people.