Russia! Russia!! Russia!!!

[StCapps]

Fuck NATO it's useless. The US pursuing bilateral agreements would work out much better for the US, Europe and Russia. It's a no brainer for the US to ditch the zombie cold war legacy project and replace with something leaner and meaner.

[Smitty-48]

No need to be fatalistic. It's not such a dire situation.

The situation is not dire, because NATO is not in a shooting war with a nuclear armed Russia. Balloon goes up; situation gets real dire real fast.

If the Americans are going to get involved, they need to have a plan b, for what happens if the balloon actually goes up, which is that NATO flies apart and turns on itself as soon as shit gets real.

[StCapps]

No need to be fatalistic. It's not such a dire situation.

The situation is not dire, because NATO is not in a shooting war with a nuclear armed Russia. Balloon goes up; situation gets real dire real fast.

It would be prudent to dismantle NATO before the situation becomes dire as opposed to after the shit hits the fan. The Trump presidency seems like a good a window of time to go about doing that.

[Smitty-48]

The real situation is; Russia only threatens three parts of NATO, the countries close to Russia, the United Kingdom, and North America, the rest of NATO is not threatened by the Russians, so the rest of NATO would take a pass, the only countries the Americans can rely on, include countries like Britian, Canada, Norway, Poland, etcetera, while the United States cannot rely on countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain etcetera, countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain, etcetera, would literally be the Russian's pseudo proxies in Brussels, the undercover bitch hacks.

The extremis of Russia attacking Article V across the trace, only comes about when the Russians think they can get away with it, where they could smash, grab, hold, and then NATO would come to the table and sue for peace, and that's where the undercover bitch hacks come in.

[boethius]

Why should my son die fighting to keep Eurocrats ruling a bunch of nations that will ethnically be majority rapefugee by 2050?

Let the Russians have Europe...at least Ivan will attempt to stop the spread of the Islamic Caliphate. The Eurocucks can't hand their country and women over the rapefugees fast enough.

[adwinistrator]

The real situation is; Russia only threatens three parts of NATO, the countries close to Russia, the United Kingdom, and North America, the rest of NATO is not threatened by the Russians, so the rest of NATO would take a pass, the only countries the Americans can rely on, include countries like Britian, Canada, Norway, Poland, etcetera, while the United States cannot rely on countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain etcetera, countries like Germany, France, Italy, Spain, etcetera, would literally be the Russian's pseudo proxies in Brussels, the undercover bitch hacks.

The extremis of Russia attacking Article V across the trace, only comes about when the Russians think they can get away with it, where they could smash, grab, hold, and then NATO would come to the table and sue for peace, and that's where the undercover bitch hacks come in.

Russia's going to continue using the same subversive techniques they used in Ukraine/Crimea to avoid Article V. Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia will be the testing grounds, and I expect that Trump's demands for increased military and economic support by NATO members will be the political issues where Russia will try and tip the scales in these nation's internal political debates on their decisions.

Russia's goals are not the disintegration of NATO via military invasion on the Baltic states, that would be biting off more than is necessary. I think their goal would be to push the Baltic states, via their internal political decisions, to leave NATO if the demands are made of them to increase their contribution.

Russia wants them in their sphere of influence, they do not want war. They also do not have the ethnic Russian separatist movement in these states to use the same playbook as they did in Crimea. Getting these countries out of NATO gives Russia the advantage they are seeking in regards to their natural resource economy, where creating a military conflict would set them back in that regard.

[Smitty-48]

If the Russians continue with their active measures/subsversion against the Baltic States, eventually they are going to provoke a retaliation against their access to Kaliningrad, at which point things start to get real hot, real fast, don't underestimate the capacity of the Russians to provocate themselves into a corner, that's exactly what they did in Ukraine/Crimea.

They provoked the Ukrainians by active measures/subversion, to the point where the Ukrainians drew a line in the sand, at which point the Russians had no choice but to restore access to their strategic Black Sea Fortress by military force, same dynamic is in play in the Baltic, except their strategic Baltic Fortress is even more critical an asset than Crimea is, so critical in fact, that even Article V would not be enough to hold them in check.

Frankly, if NATO doesn't start showing more resolve in the face of Russian active measures/subversion, I think Poland could be incited to respond unilaterally without NATO's leave to do so, the Poles are not going to accept the Baltic States being subverted into submission without a fight, Poland, is preparing for war, they are the Lion of NATO, perhaps the only one left.

When it comes to Kaliningrad, it's not Latvia the Russians are worried about, it's not even NATO, it's Poland they are preparing to fight, because they can see Poland preparing to fight back, Russia and Poland, are both preparing for war in the Baltic, on a collision course.

The Baltic States are not going to knuckle under to the Russians, they are going to resist, if the Russians keep upping the ante, then Poland is going to come in with Kaliningrad as the leverage, at which point, the Russians have boxed themselves into a strategic corner, same as they did in Ukraine, and the Poles may not be inclined to back down, so much as drag NATO along kicking and screaming behind them. Would that fracture NATO? Probably, but that would simply destabilize the situation even more.

At some point, the countries in the east of NATO are going to dig their heels in, whether NATO is up for it or not, if the Russians continue of the trajectory they are on now, and NATO continues to not take it seriously. For Americans, this is not serious business as of yet, but the Poles are deadly serious about it, make no mistake.

Is it a Red Scare? To a certain extant I think it is, but the problem with Red Scares, is that they become self fullfilling prophecies, the Reds get scary, the Red Scare reaction scares the Reds, the Reds get scarier in response, the Red Scare goes into overdrive, next thing you know, everybody is wound up right to the brink.

That's all the Cold War was in the end, a Big Red Scare, that simply spun out of control, started off small, with the Berlin Blockade, within a couple years; multi-megaton hydrogen bombs being detonated in the atmosphere like they were firecrackers.

Now, in the Cold War 1.0, it was NATO which had the city behind enemy lines which became the flashpoint for a series of confrontations which culminated in the Cuban Missile Crisis, with NATO being overmatched in terms of conventional forces and so heavily reliant on nuclear weapons to back up their ultimatums, the situation is now reversed, it is NATO with the conventional superiority and Russia which is heavily reliant on nuclear weapons to back up their ultimatums, and the "West Berlin" of Cold War 2.0, is Kaliningrad.

[BjornP]

Let the Russians have Europe...at least Ivan will attempt to stop the spread of the Islamic Caliphate. The Eurocucks can't hand their country and women over the rapefugees fast enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Russia#Today

http://www.economist.com/blogs/erasmus/ ... and-russia

Islam is an outstanding element of Russia's cultural makeup, an integral, organic part of our history,

Wikipedia entry:

Putin has allowed the de facto implementation of Sharia law in Chechnya by Ramzan Kadyrov, including polygamy and veil.

Yeah, we should really follow his example on Islam, shouldn't we?

[Smitty-48]

That's the thing, Vladimir Putin is most definitely liberal, by Russian standards, Putin and United Russia, are the centrist moderates of Russia, to their Left is the Communists, to their Right is the LDPR, which are the Ultra-Nationalists, Putin and URFP, are comparitively liberal, in a classical liberal sense.

This, by the way, is why it is foolish for the liberals in the West, or in Russia for that matter, to want to overthrow Putin and URFP, if you overthrew them, things get much more extreme from there, make no mistake.

[BjornP]

That's the thing, Vladimir Putin is most definitely liberal, by Russian standards, Putin and United Russia, are the centrist moderates of Russia, to their Left is the Communists, to their Right is the LDPR, which are the Ultra-Nationalists, Putin and URFP, are comparitively liberal, in a classical liberal sense.

This, by the way, is why it is foolish for the liberals in the West, or in Russia for that matter, to want to overthrow Putin and URFP, if you overthrew them, things get much more extreme from there, make no mistake.

Generally agree except for the isolated, bolded part. Putin and United Russia don't really represent classical liberalism, given the current track record on freedom of the press in Russia. But the central point about Putin being moderate and "liberal by Russian standards" is very true. It's just that that standard isn't very (classically) liberal, as in what we'd call Western ideals of freedom rights. But it is several degrees more free than Russians were ever used to, so your point is still true. And yeah, overthrowing or trying to overthrow Putin would simply be idiotic. He may imprison his politicial opponents and shut down critical media from time to time, but he and his party still represent a better stepping stone toward a future, more free Russia than the Communist and LDPR party. Wouldn't mind seeing their CP (Social Democrats) rise in voter representation, but you can't have a stabile welfare state without a good business infrastructure, so United Russia is still the best, in terms of stability, way forward.