THE ERA OF TRUMP

[C-Mag]

The average mid term House change is about 30+ seats. The Dems need 24 I think. So history is in their favor. My SWAG, if the economy stays strong GOP holds the house.

[Okeefenokee]

muh russian bots

[Okeefenokee]

[clubgop]

All of that is true but recently, last 3 recently, Democrat turnout has been abysmal even for mid term standards. Republican incumbents hold 24 districts that Hillary won in 2016. Dems need 23 seats. So they would have to run the table here using general election turnout models even hugely improved midterm models. Otherwise they would have to win districts like GA-06 and they have demonstrated their bench is barren. Candidate recruitment is key and they are hurting bad on that account. If I were to bet Republican lose 18-20 seats close but not enough. In the Senate, a draw, maybe +2 GOP. The map is that bad for dems.

I think it's the middle that is going to stay home. They don't like Trump, but they like the economy and he doesn't matter. The dems are as rabid as I've ever seen. My FB feed is so ridiculous that I've blocked a dozen people, at least, because they are having heart attacks over the president's diet.

I don't think they'll be staying home, but the extremists don't decide elections, you know this.

Yes they do, in midterm especially. You just said the middle stays home. Kinda contradicted yourself.

[clubgop]

The average mid term House change is about 30+ seats. The Dems need 24 I think. So history is in their favor. My SWAG, if the economy stays strong GOP holds the house.

See that average is heavily skewed by like 3 midterms, 1994,2006,2010. Democrat turnout has been awful in these things.

And I would start my average after the watergate midtem. That is when midterm became more nationalized in that aspect the average about 20 so that would bring them close. I think they will be close I just don't know if they can get over the hump.

[C-Mag]

The average mid term House change is about 30+ seats. The Dems need 24 I think. So history is in their favor. My SWAG, if the economy stays strong GOP holds the house.

See that average is heavily skewed by like 3 midterms, 1994,2006,2010. Democrat turnout has been awful in these things.

And I would start my average after the watergate midtem. That is when midterm became more nationalized in that aspect the average about 20 so that would bring them close. I think they will be close I just don't know if they can get over the hump.

I don't discount that. It will swing on the economy.

[Montegriffo]

I looked it up, the only guy to double gain since FDR in 1934, was George W. Bush in 2002, but he was running at 67% approval when he did it.

The general trend tho, is the incumbent getting whupped hard at the midterms, including FDR in 1938 when he was running at 60% approval.

The President can be personally popular, and still the incumbent party can get reined in.

Guess we’ll need to dial up another 9/11 then.

[Okeefenokee]

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[K@th]

Yes they do, in midterm especially. You just said the middle stays home. Kinda contradicted yourself.

The left will be out voting. The middle will mostly stay home.

[clubgop]

Yes they do, in midterm especially. You just said the middle stays home. Kinda contradicted yourself.

The left will be out voting. The middle will mostly stay home.

Yes, but how much of it and what kind? The left that voted for Gary Johnson and Jill Stein but voted for downballot dems? Or do they stay home? That could be the difference in races. The bluey blues in thier blue places will be voting blue but what about the lean blue in purple areas as you say the middle will stay home. But blue needs those votes to come out can the blue GOTV do that?