These are questions we've discussed and our opinions vary. I thought I'd step back and take a broader view of what typically creates shooting civil wars. Clausewitz is a good place to start.
I've argued that we are in a non-shooting Civil War now. One can easily see current events as attacks in a war. Are Globalists and Leftists attacking opponents such as non-Leftists news and social media sites in this war. I see the attacks on non-Leftist internet resources as politics through other means. People use these tactics when they do not have the political power to do what they want. This line of thought can be extended over many events in the last 2 years. I would also submit that this War through other means will increase in frequency and intensity if they continue to be without political power.
Other factors that make a Civil War possible is demonization and dehumanization of opponents. All of us can give examples, the first ones that come to mind are not ones most would likely pick: Flyover States, hicks in the sticks, climate denier. Explanation, these terms have been used for years to frame political opponents as living in an area unworthy to even stop in, stupid and uneducated, infidels of the new world religion. These are small attacks folks like me have laughed off for years, but probably should not have. Lefties see Trump doing the same thing with calling out Fake News, Lock Her Up and Pocohantus.
Civil Wars usually occur with high youth unemployment. While our official unemployment numbers are very low, we know that is not reality. We see Antifa which are mostly ecnomically comfortable college age white kids, but I view as unemployed lost souls. I think our society is filled with young unemployed kids on both sides of the political spectrum, but instead of being destitute they are fairly comfortable ecnomically........... but enraged socially due to constant media access........ Truly a 21st Century problem.
Finally what does it take psychologically to cause physical harm to ones own countryman. I think this is where we are the most divergent from countries that end up in Civil Wars. Frankly, Americans are too soft and too big a pussies to really get it on. The true rigors of fighting a hot war are unlikely for Americans. While we have all the other factors, I'm not sure the psychology for war and violence on a large scale are possible. When we look at the violence in downtown Portland, Oregon, ground zero for our current civil war what do we see? We see people willing to get into small conflicts, some of it a little brutal, but not the all out intensity to kill.
Now this could change. Take away our comfort due to economic or infrastructure failure and it changes really fast. I don't see traditional Americans who, by far, have the most ability to carry out a shooting, willing to do so except for maybe one or two reasons. Globalists and Leftists are stressed over loss of political power, they have seen their dream of ultimate control dashed and they are mad. If that continues, they have the ability to create serious problems in urban environments and minor problems in other areas. They also have control of maybe the most important infrastructure in the country, IT. They have the ability to monkey with IT stuff that traditionalists just don't have. I don't know enough about how that could be weaponized, but I know it's a danger.
In Summary, we will likely remain in a non-shooting war, and closer to a shooting Civil War for quite some time.
