Supply Chain Shortages and Inflation

[PartyOf5]

Between 2009 and 2022 it has been 5%.

[The Conservative]

And if a division of the market crashes, it's a bad thing...

[SilverEagle]

It's 10%

https://themortgagereports.com/93472/ad ... rends-2022

New, not existing. ARMs that were closed a year ago and before would be the ones in real danger.

Even if it's 5% of 2 Trillion dollars total, it doesn't matter, it will hurt.

But it’s not an economy killer. Crashes never happen the same way twice.

[The Conservative]

New, not existing. ARMs that were closed a year ago and before would be the ones in real danger.

Nothing big starts off big.
Even if it's 5% of 2 Trillion dollars total, it doesn't matter, it will hurt.

But it’s not an economy killer. Crashes never happen the same way twice.

Nothing big starts off big.

[Martin Hash]

ARMs will go up as interest rates go up. It doesn't make sense to get an ARM when interest rates are low, like they have been since 2008. It makes much more sense when they are high, like they are trending now. That 10% number is from mid-2022 when interest rates were already going up. As they get higher more people will get ARMs as they are more likely to benefit in the future when interest rates drop again.

Logical but imagine the cope going on to take out one of these!?

FYI, in 1982 the interest rate on my first mortgage was 22% fixed.

[The Conservative]

ARMs will go up as interest rates go up. It doesn't make sense to get an ARM when interest rates are low, like they have been since 2008. It makes much more sense when they are high, like they are trending now. That 10% number is from mid-2022 when interest rates were already going up. As they get higher more people will get ARMs as they are more likely to benefit in the future when interest rates drop again.

Logical but imagine the cope going on to take out one of these!?

FYI, in 1982 the interest rate on my first mortgage was 22% fixed.

23% with 650 ceedit here for my csr loan. Took iy out last month.

[TheOneX]

ARMs will go up as interest rates go up. It doesn't make sense to get an ARM when interest rates are low, like they have been since 2008. It makes much more sense when they are high, like they are trending now. That 10% number is from mid-2022 when interest rates were already going up. As they get higher more people will get ARMs as they are more likely to benefit in the future when interest rates drop again.

Logical but imagine the cope going on to take out one of these!?

FYI, in 1982 the interest rate on my first mortgage was 22% fixed.

Yeah, I think in general I think interest rates should be higher. Low interest rates are the prime culprit for unaffordable housing. It has turned housing into an investment, so people are willing to pay much more than the actual value of the house, and are able to with easy access to debt.

[The Conservative]

ARMs will go up as interest rates go up. It doesn't make sense to get an ARM when interest rates are low, like they have been since 2008. It makes much more sense when they are high, like they are trending now. That 10% number is from mid-2022 when interest rates were already going up. As they get higher more people will get ARMs as they are more likely to benefit in the future when interest rates drop again.

Logical but imagine the cope going on to take out one of these!?

FYI, in 1982 the interest rate on my first mortgage was 22% fixed.

Yeah, I think in general I think interest rates should be higher. Low interest rates are the prime culprit for unaffordable housing. It has turned housing into an investment, so people are willing to pay much more than the actual value of the house, and are able to with easy access to debt.

There is a fine line between high-interest rates and house value. I am not sure we are going to see a balance for this for a while.

[Martin Hash]

ARMs will go up as interest rates go up. It doesn't make sense to get an ARM when interest rates are low, like they have been since 2008. It makes much more sense when they are high, like they are trending now. That 10% number is from mid-2022 when interest rates were already going up. As they get higher more people will get ARMs as they are more likely to benefit in the future when interest rates drop again.

Logical but imagine the cope going on to take out one of these!?

FYI, in 1982 the interest rate on my first mortgage was 22% fixed.

Yeah, I think in general I think interest rates should be higher. Low interest rates are the prime culprit for unaffordable housing. It has turned housing into an investment, so people are willing to pay much more than the actual value of the house, and are able to with easy access to debt.

Nice analysis. As an example, I had a 22% mortgage but the house was cheap and we paid it off fast.

[PartyOf5]

A number of companies are reporting string earnings this week. This is probably due to inflation resulting in greater income, although GM was strong due to finally getting some inventory and pent up demand.

On the surface, strong earnings reports sound good. Democrats are sure to spin it as the economy is doing fine. My feeling is that people will still be spending through Christmas. When the bills come due in early 2023 is when we will see the recession that even Democrats and their new definitions can't deny. By then they won't care, because the elections will be over.

Anyone else have thoughts on what's coming?