Stop Posting Star Wars Spoilers

[SuburbanFarmer]

Boomers are going to be hilarious when the bubble pops.

It’ll be a lot of depressed/angry wrinkled faces, blubbering about rescuing social security.

[Smitty-48]

In the worst correction since the Depression, DIS went from about $32 to about $20, but it's over $100 now, so depending on when you bought in, you'd still be ahead of the game if you cash out, in the meantime, they buy back and pay a dividend, so no biggie. If interest rates go up and equity comes down, go back to fixed income.

[SuburbanFarmer]

In the worst correction since the Depression, DIS went from about $32 to about $20, but it's over $100 now, so depending on when you bought in, you'd still be ahead of the game if you cash out, in the meantime, they buy back and pay a dividend, so no biggie. If interest rates go up and equity comes down, go back to fixed income.

Yeah no. 2007 stopped where it did because “we the people” beamed 10 Trillion Magic-dollars into the banks. It didn’t fix the problem, only postponed and made it worse. There will be no tightening, because the banksters painted them selves into a corner.

1 - they raise rates seriously and lose value on their own magic-bonds. This also puts the brakes on the free money train, corps stop buying their own stock, and market crashes.

2 - they don’t raise rates, and the market overheats and crashes. Fed has no room to lower rates again, and is exposed as completely ineffective. (Current path)

3 - QE to infinity. Hyper-inflation, and mobs take to the streets.

[Smitty-48]

In the worst correction since the Depression, DIS went from about $32 to about $20, but it's over $100 now, so depending on when you bought in, you'd still be ahead of the game if you cash out, in the meantime, they buy back and pay a dividend, so no biggie. If interest rates go up and equity comes down, go back to fixed income.

Yeah no. 2007 stopped where it did because “we the people” beamed 10 Trillion Magic-dollars into the banks. It didn’t fix the problem, only postponed and made it worse. There will be no tightening, because the banksters painted them selves into a corner.

1 - they raise rates seriously and lose value on their own magic-bonds. This also puts the brakes on the free money train, corps stop buying their own stock, and market crashes.

2 - they don’t raise rates, and the market overheats and crashes. Fed has no room to lower rates again, and is exposed as completely ineffective. (Current path)

3 - QE to infinity. Hyper-inflation, and mobs take to the streets.

Well you wouldn't escape the effects of any of those doom scenarios, by not being in the market, so there's no reason not to take the dividends now and spend them, then cross that bridge when you come to it.

SIFCLF is not a strategy, it's just SIFCLF.

[SuburbanFarmer]

In the worst correction since the Depression, DIS went from about $32 to about $20, but it's over $100 now, so depending on when you bought in, you'd still be ahead of the game if you cash out, in the meantime, they buy back and pay a dividend, so no biggie. If interest rates go up and equity comes down, go back to fixed income.

Yeah no. 2007 stopped where it did because “we the people” beamed 10 Trillion Magic-dollars into the banks. It didn’t fix the problem, only postponed and made it worse. There will be no tightening, because the banksters painted them selves into a corner.

1 - they raise rates seriously and lose value on their own magic-bonds. This also puts the brakes on the free money train, corps stop buying their own stock, and market crashes.

2 - they don’t raise rates, and the market overheats and crashes. Fed has no room to lower rates again, and is exposed as completely ineffective. (Current path)

3 - QE to infinity. Hyper-inflation, and mobs take to the streets.

Well you wouldn't escape the effects of any of those doom scenarios, by not being in the market, so there's no reason not to take the dividends now and spend them, then cross that bridge when you come to it.

SIFCLF is not a strategy, it's just SIFCLF.

On the contrary. I save nearly all of my “investment” by not being in it. Don’t pretend that any dividend is going to make up for that.

I also stand to become quite wealthy, in the hyper-inflation scenario, simply by holding a modest amount of precious metals and food stores.

[Smitty-48]

On the contrary. I save nearly all of my “investment” by not being in it. Don’t pretend that any dividend is going to make up for that.

I also stand to become quite wealthy, in the hyper-inflation scenario, simply by holding a modest amount of precious metals and food stores.

In the biggest gold price jumps in history, 1973 and 1979, at best you doubled your money, it's not going to make you rich, and you're not sitting on enough gold to live on for very long, so you're just as delusional as anyone apparently.

If you're not rich right now, then there's no way you have stockpiled enough gold to ride out a total collapse of the economy, so get real.

[heydaralon]

Yeah no. 2007 stopped where it did because “we the people” beamed 10 Trillion Magic-dollars into the banks. It didn’t fix the problem, only postponed and made it worse. There will be no tightening, because the banksters painted them selves into a corner.

1 - they raise rates seriously and lose value on their own magic-bonds. This also puts the brakes on the free money train, corps stop buying their own stock, and market crashes.

2 - they don’t raise rates, and the market overheats and crashes. Fed has no room to lower rates again, and is exposed as completely ineffective. (Current path)

3 - QE to infinity. Hyper-inflation, and mobs take to the streets.

Well you wouldn't escape the effects of any of those doom scenarios, by not being in the market, so there's no reason not to take the dividends now and spend them, then cross that bridge when you come to it.

SIFCLF is not a strategy, it's just SIFCLF.

On the contrary. I save nearly all of my “investment” by not being in it. Don’t pretend that any dividend is going to make up for that.

I also stand to become quite wealthy, in the hyper-inflation scenario, simply by holding a modest amount of precious metals and food stores.

GCF:

If things got really bad, don't you think having precious metals and grain would simply make you a target for robbery? Correct me if I'm wrong, but you aren't a "gun guy" right? Do you really think that if society collapsed in the scenario you are imagining, that all of the food and gold you have wouldn't just be taken by someone stronger? That's the flaw with survivalism. If you have anything visible that makes you survive, it actually lowers your safety in many ways. I suppose you could just bury the gold in your yard and not spend it, but what would be the point of that? Also, unless you have like barns and barns full of wheat, I don't think you could outlast this collapse or really use your food stores to profit from it. Even then, it would spoil pretty fast and you would just run into the same problem of someone taking it by force. I'm not dissing you. I think its cool that you are teaching your kids how to do stuff like this, I just don't think it would play out the way you imagine it in your mind. If society collapsed, and it came down to a scenario like "The Road" or "The Day After," not sure I'd want to survive that anyway.

[Smitty-48]

Wouldn't have to be anything near that bad, for Grumpy to find out that he wasn't actually sitting on enough to last him, I'm not saying don't hold any gold, by all means, it's good to have some in the safe to hedge, but buying a few gold coins is not going to last you, and with a bunch of kids to feed, I seriously doubt Grumpy is buying it in sufficient quantities, at $40,000 a kilo.

Gold went from $208 to $459 in 1979, that was a 120% increase, that's the biggest jump of all time, then your kilo is $88,000, but that's not going to last very long, that doesn't make you rich.

[heydaralon]

Wouldn't have to be anything near that bad, for Grumpy to find out that he wasn't actually sitting on enough to last him, I'm not saying don't hold any gold, by all means, it's good to have some in the safe to hedge, but buying a few gold coins is not going to last you, and with a bunch of kids to feed, I seriously doubt Grumpy is buying it in sufficient quantities, at $40,000 a kilo.

I love looking at pics of GCF's wheat harvest, and some of his investing ideas are solid. I wasn't trying to be an asshole to Grumps, I just don't think that you can escape the collapse with a small amount of gold and a shed full of wheat. Even if he did have a lot of gold, then what? Do you have enough to keep buying wheat and supplies forever? If things are bad enough to where having a small amount of actual grain could be valuable, it would probably be so scarce that no one would want to sell it anyway. Not sure a starving man would accept gold for instance. Maybe if you lived on a huge, well armed ranch with hundreds of acres of corn or soy you'd be fine, but I don't think a suburban plot could sustain a family for long. Self sufficiency is a cool idea, and I like planting peppers, but I believe in this day and age it is a mirage for most people, especially in the US.

[Smitty-48]

Well first of all, to have enough grain to last you, you'd have to own a sizable farm, and be a fuckin' farmer who knew what he was doing. And even if you do know what you're doing, grain goes bad all the time, farming is dodgy at the best of times, never mind some wannabe prepper who doesn't own a farm and has no clue what he's doing. So grain baron Grumpy is clearly a fantasy.

In terms of gold, even if it went up a 1000%, that's only $880,000 a kilo, so you're not going to be rich, assuming you are even sitting on one kilo right now, if you're just holding a few bars, that ain't got be enough, even at a 1000% increase, that's only $12,000 a bar, that's not wealthy by any means, considering it is an asset, not income.

In the event of the dollar collapsing, gold is going to spike, but it's not going to go on and on year over year in perpetuity, it's going to stabilize, and even come back down again, so unless you're sitting a whole lotta gold right now, it's not going to make you wealthy, you'd still be in the same boat with the masses, you're not going to be John D. Rockafeller, off you're little chicken scratch hoard of $1200 gold bars.