North Korea News

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StCapps
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Re: North Korea News

Post by StCapps » Sat Sep 02, 2017 10:55 am

Smitty-48 wrote:By the time they can reach the CONUS reliably, it's too late then, certainly, the American people are in denial, they don't want to think about it, so they just pretend that it's not going to happen, but by the time they are forced to confront it, it will be too late, it falls to the American CinC to lead, and ensure that it nevers come to too late, too late, is not an acceptable outcome, if you are forsworn to defend the CONUS from unacceptable attrition.
Right well don't wait until it's too late, wait until before it's too late and take them out prior to reaching that threshold. You don't have to take them out tomorrow to ensure that happens before North Korea crosses the threshold, you can still wait a while longer, you just don't want to wait too long.

Better too early than too late obviously, but the risk of being "too late" is negligible at the moment, so there is no need to take them out ASAP, just to ensure it never gets that far.
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Re: North Korea News

Post by Smitty-48 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:02 am

StCapps wrote:
Smitty-48 wrote:By the time they can reach the CONUS reliably, it's too late then, certainly, the American people are in denial, they don't want to think about it, so they just pretend that it's not going to happen, but by the time they are forced to confront it, it will be too late, it falls to the American CinC to lead, and ensure that it nevers come to too late, too late, is not an acceptable outcome, if you are forsworn to defend the CONUS from unacceptable attrition.
Right well don't wait until it's too late, wait until before it's too late and take them out prior to reaching that threshold. You don't have to take them out tomorrow to ensure that happens before North Korea crosses the threshold, you can still wait a while longer, you just don't want to wait too long.
That's not how it works, when a state crosses the threshold, they cross it all at once, it's called a breakout, you can't mount a nuclear force one bomb and one missile at a time, for the very reason that there is a Smitty LeMay on the other side, and he will execute the counterforce then, so in order to ensure that he doesn't, you come across the line in force, the missiles they are launching now, are the testbeds, the missiles they breakout with, will be fully capable, and they wont break out one at a time, they will break out with dozens of them at the same time, and they will be dispersed and concealed as well, and even on submarines, at which point, counterforce becomes an extreme high risk existential gambit, immediately, the only window for counterforce without American attrition; the Americans are in that window, now.
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Re: North Korea News

Post by StCapps » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 am

Smitty-48 wrote:That's not how it works, when a state crosses the threshold, they cross it all at once, it's called a breakout, you can't mount a nuclear force one bomb and one missile at a time, for the very reason that there is a Smitty LeMay on the other side, and he will execute the counterforce then, so in order to ensure that he doesn't, you come across the line in force, the missiles they are launching now, are the testbeds, the missiles they breakout with, will be fully capable, and they wont break out one at a time, they will break out with dozens of them at the same time, and they will be dispersed and concealed as well, and even on submarines, at which point, counterforce becomes an extreme high risk existential gambit, immediately, the only window for counterforce without American attrition; the Americans are in that window, now.
The second they are hinting at going into break out, you take them out, they are still a ways away from even realistically attempting that. Even the best coordinated break out will leave the US plenty of window of opportunity to take them out with no real risk.
Last edited by StCapps on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: North Korea News

Post by Speaker to Animals » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 am

StCapps wrote:
Smitty-48 wrote:That's not how it works, when a state crosses the threshold, they cross it all at once, it's called a breakout, you can't mount a nuclear force one bomb and one missile at a time, for the very reason that there is a Smitty LeMay on the other side, and he will execute the counterforce then, so in order to ensure that he doesn't, you come across the line in force, the missiles they are launching now, are the testbeds, the missiles they breakout with, will be fully capable, and they wont break out one at a time, they will break out with dozens of them at the same time, and they will be dispersed and concealed as well, and even on submarines, at which point, counterforce becomes an extreme high risk existential gambit, immediately, the only window for counterforce without American attrition; the Americans are in that window, now.
The second they are hinting at going into break out, you take them out, they are still a ways away from even realistically attempting that. Even the best coordinate break out will leave the US plenty of window of opportunity.

Wait. What?

Why would they hint they are about to strike?

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Re: North Korea News

Post by StCapps » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:08 am

Speaker to Animals wrote:Wait. What?

Why would they hint they are about to strike?
They won't, but their intentions will be hard to hide, they'll get caught even if the breakout is well coordinated and will get taken out before they can actually fully achieve a breakout.
Last edited by StCapps on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: North Korea News

Post by Speaker to Animals » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:09 am

StCapps wrote:
Speaker to Animals wrote:Wait. What?

Why would they hint they are about to strike?
They won't but there intentions will be hard to hide, they'll get caught.
Their intentions are already manifest. If they decide to carry through with those intentions, I am not convinced those preparations will be detected.

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Re: North Korea News

Post by StCapps » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:10 am

Speaker to Animals wrote:Their intentions are already manifest. If they decide to carry through with those intentions, I am not convinced those preparations will be detected.
I am convinced they'll be caught. You're just a scared little pussy, the intelligence community will jump the gun on a false alarm before North Korea actually gets the jump on them, let's be real. They'll pretend they can are capable of retaliating well before they can, just to make sure. That is a far bigger worry than a perfectly timed Nuclear breakout on North Korea's part, your intelligence community tricking you into nuking them on false info, that could actually happen.
Last edited by StCapps on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: North Korea News

Post by Smitty-48 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:12 am

The Americans are distracted, the Americasns are in denial, the CONUS is already within reach with single stage plutonium implosion device, 25 kiloton range, the North Koreans are launching their testbed missiles on a high trajectory, that's why they end up coming down on the otherside of Japan, they're just testing their PBV separation for a single stage single warhead, but if they set it for depressed trajectory, they can hit Los Angeles, right now.
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Re: North Korea News

Post by StCapps » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:14 am

Smitty-48 wrote:The Americans are distracted, the Americasns are in denial, the CONUS is already within reach with single stage plutonium implosion device, 25 kiloton range, the North Koreans are launching their testbed missiles on a high trajectory, that's why they end up coming down on the otherside of Japan, they're just testing their PBV separation for a single stage single warhead, but if they set it for depressed trajectory, they can hit Los Angeles, right now.
Except they would very likely miss, hit nothing of consequence and then North Korea gets nuked into oblivion, so what use is that?

Why not keep testing until your missiles will actually be somewhat accurate? What use is having a missile if you can't trust it to hit it's target? They don't even have enough nukes to spray and pray they hit something of relevance, they can't do fuck all to the US at the moment, except commit national suicide for no good reason and force them to retaliate, with nothing to show for it in the end.
Last edited by StCapps on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: North Korea News

Post by Smitty-48 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:19 am

StCapps wrote:
Smitty-48 wrote:The Americans are distracted, the Americasns are in denial, the CONUS is already within reach with single stage plutonium implosion device, 25 kiloton range, the North Koreans are launching their testbed missiles on a high trajectory, that's why they end up coming down on the otherside of Japan, they're just testing their PBV separation for a single stage single warhead, but if they set it for depressed trajectory, they can hit Los Angeles, right now.
Except they would very likely miss, hit nothing of consequence and then North Korea nuked into oblivion, so what use is that?

Why not keep testing until your missiles will actually be somewhat accurate? What use is having a missile if you can't trust it to hit it's target?
They're not going to miss Los Angeles, San Francisco or Seattle, they're not down to quarter mile accuracy, but they can hit the broadside of a barn, so, Los Angeles County, the Bay Area, well within their range already. With 25 kilotons, simply seeking mass casaulties, precision accuracy is not required.

When they add the deuterium capsule to the plutonium implosion device, two stage fission-fusion will take it straight to megaton yield.
Last edited by Smitty-48 on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:21 am, edited 2 times in total.
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