I have no illusions of SOCOM taking out the trash in North Korea. I spent some time just south of there in Pusan. I know the resolve of both militaries and the people. South Korea has it good and has grown soft like the American people. Life is good for them why would they want to go to war over the north they feel sorry for.Smitty-48 wrote:The South Koreans ain't gonna do shit, they don't want the regime in the North collapsing, that's the last thing they want, they just elected the Lefty Sunshine appeasement party, and 80% of South Koreans polled favour negotiation with the North.
As to the Tom Clancy-esque fantasy about JSOC going into the DPRK, that's really a reflection of how the American public just doesn't grasp how little intelligence the Pentagon is actually able to glean about North Korea, in terms of that level of detail, the detail required to execute that sort of operation, it's opaque to them.
They really have no idea what's going on up there for that level of operations, maybe they can track mobile ICBM's with overhead assets, they can locate major military installations and manuevers, but in terms of get in, get Kim, get out again? No chance, and they would never risk it being so blind to what they would be sending them into.
The most remarkable feat of this regime, is how they are able to conceal so much from the outside world and for so long despite being the focus of so much attention, even the combined intelligence agencies of the United States can't see much through the fog.
Most of what you know comes from defectors, but they're all kind of like "Curveball" from Iraq, they could be totally full of shit, you really have no idea if what they are saying is true and/or accurate, and there really isn't a reliable way to verify.
The ELINT/SIGINT/COMINT/HUMINT cone of silence in the DPRK, it's actually quite amazing in this day and age, their principle defense being that they are so low tech, they use some tech, but so little that it doesn't provide a picture.
People who've lived their whole lives inside this regime have no idea what's going on at the upper echelons of this regime, the idea that the Pentagon has any clue, is delusional.
The North Korea Desk, they deduce, they extrapolate, they track from a great height, they make educated guesses, but in terms hard data and detailed information on who, when, where, why, and how? They really don't know.
The discipline of the North Korean regime is hella impressive, they must literally do almost everything face to face with no signal traffic at all. The idea that the NK's are a bunch of clowns and JSOC could just waltz in there and bust a move? No.
The North Koreans are way too good at what they do, if they weren't, they wouldn't be able to remain so opaque for so long with so many assets trying to find out what's going on up there.
Just like fat, laz, Americans they want to watch whatever game show is on instead of rolling up their sleeves and doing the dirty work. The military on both sides have great discipline. And since they will have to pay the butchers bill they are empathic enough to try any means other than war. That only ensures a higher cost and more violence before it gets better.