North Korea News

[SuburbanFarmer]

Iraq collapsed pretty quickly when the head was removed.
I don't know that I'd point to Saddam Hussein as an example of head-of-state decapitation not working.
Worked pretty damn well.
It's what arose from the chaos that followed that vexed us.

+1

I don't think there are any 'oppressed minorities' left in NK, waiting to take power and devastate the population. Certainly no religious fanatics, except for those deep in hiding, and no deep tribal history to conflict with state control.. It is quite a different situation.

[Smitty-48]

Well, thankfully nobody in the Pentagon is going to take any chances with Navy SEAL incited regime change, if the NK's launch a nuclear weapon, even as a firepower demonstration, because if they did that, then that means they know they have more where that came from, and they probably have the deliverable hydrogen bombs therein, so, that would be go time for the B-2's, the Pentagon wouldn't muck about.

If they pop a nuke off of Guam, they're only doing that, if/when they know they can hit Los Angeles with 500 kilotons, so popping a nuke near Andersen field, is the brink itself, at which point, DEFCON One.

You don't pop a nuke unless you're ready to go all the way, they're not going to assume that the American NCA is not going respond in kind, so when you see the flash, it's on, that's go time, no ifs ands nor buts about it.

In the end, a nuke near Andersen field, is not going to be interpreted as a warning, the Pentagon would simply assume that they took their shot, but missed, and so they're not going to be waiting around for the NK's to keep shooting, until they get the range right.

[Smitty-48]

Hence, the only way you could do it, without inciting a nuclear war, would be to detonate in place, in the middle of nowhere, with no strategic targets in the vicinity, and no outbound nor inbound tracks, ergo, float a barge out into the ocean, detonate there. North Korean Bikini Atoll.

[nmoore63]

North Korea's more difficult to predict that Iraq.

North Korea's control of society is significantly more than that of Iraq.

Saddam was much more of a strongman, Kim's are more godlike.

[Smitty-48]

It's not even about godlike control, there is a ruling class in North Korea, their fates are bound to the fate of the regime, and there are in fact millions of them, and they control the military and security arms of the state, and in the event of decapitation at the Kim level, they would be fighting for their lives by default, so they would fight, they would have no other option but to go down swinging and just hope to catch some breaks.

Everybody who lives in Pyongyang is the ruling class, you don't get to live in Pyongyang unless you are a vetted regime loyalist, and in Pyongyang is where you have your perks, perogatives, and power, so out of 2.5 million people in Pyongyang, you're not going to find many dissidents, if you want to decaptiate the regime in Pyongyang, time senstive, you'd have to nuke it.

The ruling class in Pyongyang is not poised to overthrow this regime, life is good in Pyongyang, Pyongyang is not a gulag, and the regime for this ruling class, is not only the gravy train, it's the only thing keeping them from being hung from the lampposts en masse, so methinks they would cling to it tenaciously, they can always find another Kim to be the Kim, in the meantime, if they don't fight, they're dead meat anyways, so they're gonna fight for their lives, bet dat.

[Speaker to Animals]

It's about 1200 square miles, though.

Maybe just firebomb it.

[Smitty-48]

It's about 1200 square miles, though.

Maybe just firebomb it.

If in the face of a nuclear threat, it becomes time sensitive to say the least, they're not popping off a nuke anywhere other than an underground test site, unless they can back that up with a 500 kiloton one over Los Angeles with a quarter mile CEP, so, if you have to decapitate that, the firebombs you need, are two stage fission-fusion, to make sure you get it done, all in one go.

This is why the B61 is FUFO dial-a-yield, airburst, impact, bunkerbuster, now with INS/GPS, it's the all purpose firebomb, break glass in case of time sensitive theater nuclear war.

[Smitty-48]

PACOM just flew an exercise yesterday, with B-1B's from Guam coordinating with F-35's from Iwakuni, for a conventional live fire pass on the Peninsula against a simulated North Korean "core facility", so just scale that up to war measures, full mission package, and add B61's, and that's pretty much what they would do.

[DBTrek]

North Korea's more difficult to predict that Iraq.

North Korea's control of society is significantly more than that of Iraq.

Saddam was much more of a strongman, Kim's are more godlike.

True, but there's a complexity here not being addressed.
The Kim dynasty is a DYNASTY.

You kill the cult god - who takes over.
Kim Jong Un has no offspring, does he?
He had his brother whacked.

Does the daughter step in?
Do the generals break apart like after the death of Alexander the Great and squabble for territory?

Smitty says that NK just comes up with a new Kim, but I don't think it's that simple. The eldest Kim was a "revolutionary" leader.
All Kims since have been descendants.
You don't just "make up" a new heir.

So what happens?

[DBTrek]

I guess it would leave them Han Solo.
That's about it.