Poking the Bear Again

[Smitty-48]

reportedly the Russians are on the move in Western District

got some trains moving up to the border with Ukraine carrying armor & artillery

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/13 ... 2459939846

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 5172289536

https://twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/1377017401401835521

https://twitter.com/Eire_QC/status/1377021544266919938

[SuburbanFarmer]

Oh cool. WW3 time. Because this year didn’t suck enough already.

[Xenophon]

Oh cool. WW3 time. Because this year didn’t suck enough already.

I doubt it will escalate more than it did during the Obama administration. That conflict has been on pause since Obama left. Funny, that.

[Smitty-48]

BMP-3's & MSTA-S in large quantities

seems like the Russians are moving another Motor-Rifle Division to Western District under 20th Guards Army

there is the provocations in the Donbass by the Ukrainians,

and NATO is about to launch into a large scale exercise

I would say the Russians are just sending another strategic warning,

similar to surfacing three SSBN's in the Arctic

[Smitty-48]

reportedly Russia has deployed 15,000 troops to Krasnodar on the eastern border of Ukraine in Western District

at the same time another 28,000 troops have moved from Southern District into Crimea

so a total of 43,000 troops, roughly three Divisions or Corps strength, in fifty Battalion Tactical Groups

they are conducting battle drills seemingly in preparation for a counteroffensive in the Donbass, as necessary

no sign they are imminently about to launch, but they are definitely in position to encircle the Ukrainians

the Russian foreign ministry has released a statement with regards to the deployment

it reads "those who try to unleash a new war in Donbass, will destroy Ukraine"

so apparently Ivan ain't playing, they are ready to rock

[GloryofGreece]

Whats the strategic reasons the Donbass is a hot spot? Is It primarily bc its eastern Ukraine and more culturally * Russian* / shares a border etc or some other geopolitical or resource reason?

[Smitty-48]

Whats the strategic reasons the Donbass is a hot spot? Is It primarily bc its eastern Ukraine and more culturally * Russian* / shares a border etc or some other geopolitical or resource reason?

the strategic objective is to fracture Ukraine to prevent it from being annexed by the EU

the operational objective includes guarding the approaches to Crimea from the north

the Russian incursion into Donbass guards the northern flank of the annexation of Crimea

the Ukrainians can't mount much of an action against Crimea while they have to deal the Donbass incursion

[Smitty-48]

reportedly Merkel & Macron reached out to Putin in an emergency video teleconference

Putin was described as being "uncompromising"

basically Poland & Ukraine have been starting trouble in Belarus & Donbass

Putin is bringing things to the brink of war to put a stop to it

escalation dominance

[Smitty-48]

the general theme of all OSINT reports is that tensions are high and both China & Russia are feeling frisky

both Xi & Putin feel comfortable being aggressive right now

the analysis is that America is weak & divided & paralyzed

the Woke are running the Biden Administration, and they are perceived as flailing

the Woke movement can only disrupt things to gain power, but once in power they can't run anything

so there is a full court press against all of America's allies to drive them to capitulation

Britain, Canada, Australia ; China is hammering those allies

France, Germany & the EU ; Russia is ramping the pressure up on them

[Ph64]

the general theme of all OSINT reports is that tensions are high and both China & Russia are feeling frisky

both Xi & Putin feel comfortable being aggressive right now

the analysis is that America is weak & divided & paralyzed

the Woke are running the Biden Administration, and they are perceived as flailing

the Woke movement can only disrupt things to gain power, but once in power they can't run anything

so there is a full court press against all of America's allies to drive them to capitulation

Britain, Canada, Australia ; China is hammering those allies

France, Germany & the EU ; Russia is ramping the pressure up on them

And they're not wrong as far as I can tell.