Meanwhile in Iraq & Syria

[ssu]

Calm down, folks, there's not going to be any US military action taken against Assad, regardless of what he does, as the Russians have deployed a comprehensive integrated air defense system to Syria, everything from S1 Panstyr to S-400 Triumf, with Su-35's flying CAP/QRA, not to mention the Russian forces are integrated alongside Assad's forces, thus, the Russians are shielding Assad from any sort of kinetic military action whatsoever, zero chance the US is going to send US forces downtown into the teeth of the Russian IADS, because this ain't the Iraqi's, and the Russians could and would inflict heavy casualties on US forces attempting to do so, and there's no way to hit Assad without killing significant numbers of Russian forces in the process, so there's no viable military option for Trump, the Pentagon would simply tell him how many planes and pilots he was likely to lose in the first wave, and that would be the end of that discussion right there, right thur, full stop.

So long as the Russians are in the way, the US is not going to be able to strike, which is exactly why the Russians have put themselves in the way in the first place.

That's what I'm thinking too. The options are few. It would be very odd that Mattis or McMaster, who btw wrote the book: Dereliction of Duty: Johnson, McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam, would go for a confrontation with the Russians now. The US has about 1000 men in Syria now and close to them are about between 1600-4500 Russian soldiers. See Russian and American troops are within 'hand-grenade range' of each other in Syria as they overlap while fighting ISIS, warn US commanders

Now it's actually the first time Trump has to think a little bit what to really do as commander-in-chief, bit of a test for him.

Yet interesting to see how people are throwing Trump under the bus here... assuming Trump has gone to "the dark side".

Trump in Syria:

[Okeefenokee]

But really, this entire situation is a test of our government's diplomatic power. If we're going to sabre-rattle towards Iran and Syria, while trying to work towards greater cooperation with Russia, it will be the State Department doing the heavy lifting, not the Pentagon.

I don't think the Russians are concerned either way, they have their agenda, and the US is not in a position to leverage them significantly more than it is already, there's nothing in the US quiver which will force the Russians to abandon their Assad project, if they do that, it will be entirely for their own domestic reasons, which, if they're not suffering heavy casualties, which they're not, there's no pressure to generate such reasons, propping up Assad is popular with Putin's base, the Amercans ain't gonna do shit about it, and so long as there ain't a parade of flag draped coffins coming home, Russians ain't too worried.

100% agree, those are the realities.

I'm not sure if Trump and Tillerson have come to terms with that yet, but I have to imagine they will over the next few days of meetings with DoD and JCS.

If they just want to posture and talk big, with no intention of influencing the situation on the ground, they can do that. This would be the same mistake made by the Obama administration, and would have them appear ineffective.

Obama's, "red line," and Trump's, "do something," should be seen for how different they are. I'd have preferred that he didn't do the politically expedient thing, if that's what he did, but I'm not in the hot seat.

[Smitty-48]

But really, this entire situation is a test of our government's diplomatic power. If we're going to sabre-rattle towards Iran and Syria, while trying to work towards greater cooperation with Russia, it will be the State Department doing the heavy lifting, not the Pentagon.

I don't think the Russians are concerned either way, they have their agenda, and the US is not in a position to leverage them significantly more than it is already, there's nothing in the US quiver which will force the Russians to abandon their Assad project, if they do that, it will be entirely for their own domestic reasons, which, if they're not suffering heavy casualties, which they're not, there's no pressure to generate such reasons, propping up Assad is popular with Putin's base, the Amercans ain't gonna do shit about it, and so long as there ain't a parade of flag draped coffins coming home, Russians ain't too worried.

We were hoping that Americans were coming around to the idea that it wasn't an American necessity to topple every regime around the world that we don't 100% love.

Well even those Americans who haven't come around to that way of thinking can understand the difference between beating up on a regime which cannot defend itself against US air supremacy, and getting into a fight with a regime which is protected by a comprehensive state of the art best in the world Russian integrated air defense system, even if you're an intervention hawk, none of them are prepared to start losing jets a couple dozen at a time, every night you go downtown against the S-400's & Co. Nobody, even the Hawks, is up for Hanoi Hilton 2.0

If it ain't a good prospect for a near casualty free cake walk against a hapless opponent who can't defend itself, realistically, the US just ain't gonna be up for it, Hawks or otherwise, simple as that.

[SilverEagle]

I don't think the Russians are concerned either way, they have their agenda, and the US is not in a position to leverage them significantly more than it is already, there's nothing in the US quiver which will force the Russians to abandon their Assad project, if they do that, it will be entirely for their own domestic reasons, which, if they're not suffering heavy casualties, which they're not, there's no pressure to generate such reasons, propping up Assad is popular with Putin's base, the Amercans ain't gonna do shit about it, and so long as there ain't a parade of flag draped coffins coming home, Russians ain't too worried.

We were hoping that Americans were coming around to the idea that it wasn't an American necessity to topple every regime around the world that we don't 100% love.

Well even those Americans who haven't come around to that way of thinking can understand the difference between beating up on a regime which cannot defend itself against US air supremacy, and getting into a fight with a regime which is protected by a comprehensive state of the art best in the world Russian integrated air defense system, even if you're an intervention hawk, none of them are prepared to start losing jets a couple dozen at a time, every night you go downtown against the S-400's & Co. Nobody, even the Hawks, is up for Hanoi Hilton 2.0

If it ain't a good prospect for a near casualty free cake walk against a hapless opponent who can't defend itself, realistically, the US just ain't gonna be up for it, Hawks or otherwise, simple as that.

HOLY SHIT IT'S SMITTY!!!!!!!!!! HE'S ALIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I expect to you comment in the NHL Thread sir!

[Martin Hash]

Yet interesting to see how people are throwing Trump under the bus here... assuming Trump has gone to "the dark side".

Joe American waved Trump in, Joe American will kick his ass out if he doesn't put Joe American's interests first.

[Speaker to Animals]

Yet interesting to see how people are throwing Trump under the bus here... assuming Trump has gone to "the dark side".

Joe American waved Trump in, Joe American will kick his ass out if he doesn't put Joe American's interests first.

Yep.

[Smitty-48]

I expect to you comment in the NHL Thread sir!

Not much to say at this point, there's only three games left, the Leafs will either make it or they won't, we're kind of beyond the commenting phase at this point up here, other than saying Go Leafs Go, the rubber has met the road, so just getter done; end of comment.

[ssu]

Joe American waved Trump in, Joe American will kick his ass out if he doesn't put Joe American's interests first.

The Gerasimov doctrine working pretty well on Joe American. S-400 is of course a good system, but likely the Russian IC is even better here with far better impact.

Because has Trump yet bombed something? Will his NSC team want to bomb Assad now? Really?

Because on the ground, the chess game is already played out.

Actually it's an interesting just what Trump will do. If he is now called "chicken" or a "weak dick", will he press for some kind of retaliation? If he starts demanding some kind of military intervention, then it's interesting what they will do. As the Trump White House does leak a lot, we will know sooner or later at least part of what goes on behind closed doors.

[Smitty-48]

The issue with the S-400 et. al. IADS being in the way, is that you can't really go after Assad without knocking that system down first, but to knock that system down, you'd have to go to war with the Russians, which, that's not happening, so it would be a case of trying to strike Assad through the teeth of the Russian IADS shield in full effect, which would mean heavy US casualties, dozens of jets lost every time you went at them, which, that's not happening neither, so the fact that the Russians have an IADS in the way, is enough to prevent the US from striking Assad in of itself; can't take the Russians out, but can't afford to go in without taking the Russians out first, so realistically, S-400 & Co being in the way, makes military action of any consequence a non starter, dictionary definition of, without the Russians even having to fire a shot; this is what deterrence looks like.

Phase one of any US military operation is to knock down the enemy IADS to achieve air supremacy, if that can't be done, then never mind; if no phase one, there will be no phases at all.

[ssu]

Deterrence with Russia having an ace in the pocket.

Turkey.

It's not only that the military situation is rahter good (for Russia), especially is so the political situation. And here the main blame is on Obama.

Putin quickly changed his stance on Turkey after the coup and let by-gones be by-gones (who cares about on SU-24) and found a friend in Turkey, which has been angry towards the US (and the West). Just days ago Turkey and Russia held joint excersizes.

(5th April, 2017)Russia and Turkey held joint naval drills in the Black Sea region Wednesday as the nations found themselves aligned with opposing sides in conflicts in Europe and the Middle East.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet joined the Turkish navy in the strategic body of water, which has been a source of heightened tensions due to parallel military exercises by Russia and members of NATO, of which Turkey was a part. Russia deployed its Kalibr cruise missile-equipped Admiral Grigorovich frigate, Udaloy-class Vice Admiral Zakharin destroyer and Raptor patrol boat to participate in the operations while Turkey sent its Barbados frigate and the Ada-class Buyukada corvette. Vyacheslav Trukhachev, the spokesperson for Russia's Black Sea Fleet, said the vessels trained for joint defense and rescue operations.

"As part of the drill, ships of the two countries practiced… exit from a naval base, joint maneuvering and communication, as well as repelling an attack of a small-sized high-speed target, an inspection operation, search for and rescue of a person in the water," Trukhachev told reporters, according to Russia's Sputnik News.

See Russia and Turkey Military Drills Come Amid Fresh Syrian War and NATO Tensions

Turkish Naval officers arriving in Russia a few days ago: