HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

User avatar
DrYouth
Posts: 4050
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:13 pm
Location: Canadastan

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by DrYouth » Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:30 pm

How big a problem might this uncertainty turn out to be?
I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Trump has a learning curve ahead of him... hope he's up to it.
Deep down tho, I still thirst to kill you and eat you. Ultra Chimp can't help it.. - Smitty

User avatar
DrYouth
Posts: 4050
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:13 pm
Location: Canadastan

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by DrYouth » Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:34 pm

The situation in Ukraine for example seems to pose tripwire like scenarios...
Deep down tho, I still thirst to kill you and eat you. Ultra Chimp can't help it.. - Smitty

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by Smitty-48 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:46 pm

DrYouth wrote:The situation in Ukraine for example seems to pose tripwire like scenarios...
There's no tripwire in Ukraine, the Russians respect America's security guaruntees to Europe, the Russians believe that Article V is for real, but they also know that beyond the Article V line, they can pretty much get away with murder.

It's not the Americans who are deterring the Russians in Ukraine, the Russians are simply looking for an easy win, just keep wearing the Ukrainians down, until they capitulate to Russia's terms. It's an economy of force operation, assymetrical, they are simply playing the spoiler, and quite frankly, it's working, so there's no reason to escalate.
Nec Aspera Terrent

User avatar
DrYouth
Posts: 4050
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:13 pm
Location: Canadastan

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by DrYouth » Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:55 pm

You don't see any chance of miscalculations that could escalate...

It seems on the surface of things like the most likely place for this to happen.

What would you say the most likely flashpoint for escalation to WW3 is in the world today?
Deep down tho, I still thirst to kill you and eat you. Ultra Chimp can't help it.. - Smitty

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by Smitty-48 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:05 pm

DrYouth wrote:You don't see any chance of miscalculations that could escalate...

It seems on the surface of things like the most likely place for this to happen.

What would you say the most likely flashpoint for escalation to WW3 is in the world today?
Oh, there's always a chance of that, the Russians like to play the Escalation Dominance game, and that is inherently dangerous, but at the same time, in Ukraine they are only taking calculated risks, they're not going for broke, they're just nibbling around the margins, trying to topple the regime without having to actually topple it directly, merely by playing the spoiler, and then waiting them out.

Most likely flashpoint for World War Three? India & Co vs. China/Pakistan, then everybody gets dragged into the vortex.

Bear in mind, World War Two doesn't actually start in Poland, World War Two actually starts when Japan invades Manchuria, by the time the vortex gets to Poland, things are quite far down the gravity well by then, so World War Three would likely be the same; the thing that lights the powder keg, would not be on the central front, it would start on the flanks, then spread from there.
Nec Aspera Terrent

User avatar
DrYouth
Posts: 4050
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:13 pm
Location: Canadastan

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by DrYouth » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:24 pm

Kashmir?
Deep down tho, I still thirst to kill you and eat you. Ultra Chimp can't help it.. - Smitty

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by Smitty-48 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:30 pm

DrYouth wrote:Kashmir?
Actually, the way it is working, is that India is building up its forces over Kashmir and whatnot, against Pakistan, but then that is setting China off, China's build up is being interpreted as something to do with the Americans, but in fact, it has more to do with India and Russia and Vietnam and Japan and so on and so forth, to wit, the Americans are actually the least of their worries, so Kashmir and whatnot, may not actually be the powder keg, the powder keg may actually be the border dispute and growing confrontation between India and China directly, with China merely employing Pakistan as a proxy.

You've heard of Thucydides Trap? Generally, it is applied to China being the rising power challenging the USA, but in this case, it is actually India being the rising and for the first time strategic nuclear power, which is starting to challenge China.
Nec Aspera Terrent

User avatar
Speaker to Animals
Posts: 38685
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:59 pm

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by Speaker to Animals » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:32 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:
DrYouth wrote:Kashmir?
Actually, the way it is working, is that India is building up its forces over Kashmir and whatnot, against Pakistan, but then that is setting China off, China's build up is being interpreted as something to do with the Americans, but in fact, it has more to do with India and Russia and Vietnam and Japan and so on and so forth, to wit, the Americans are actually the least of their worries, so Kashmir and whatnot, may not actually be the powder keg, the powder keg may actually be the border dispute and growing confrontation between India and China directly, with China merely employing Pakistan as a proxy.

You've heard of Thucydides Trap? Generally, it is applied to China being the rising power challenging the USA, but in this case, it is actually India being the rising and for the first time strategic nuclear power, which is starting to challenge China.

China might be in a bad position if this escalates. China and Pakistan against: India, Russia, America, Vietnam, Japan, and whoever else.. that's not going to end well for them. Even if they decide to go nuclear, while they might destroy some of our cities, they still get wrecked.

The only friends they have made are in broken states in Africa and South America. Good luck, I guess.

User avatar
DrYouth
Posts: 4050
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:13 pm
Location: Canadastan

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by DrYouth » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:36 pm

Smitty-48 wrote: Actually, the way it is working, is that India is building up its forces over Kashmir and whatnot, against Pakistan, but then that is setting China off, China's build up is being interpreted as something to do with the Americans, but in fact, it has more to do with India and Russia and Vietnam and Japan and so on and so forth, to wit, the Americans are actually the least of their worries, so Kashmir and whatnot, may not actually be the powder keg, the powder keg may actually be the border dispute and growing confrontation between India and China directly, with China merely employing Pakistan as a proxy.

You've heard of Thucydides Trap? Generally, it is applied to China being the rising power challenging the USA, but in this case, it is actually India being the rising and for the first time strategic nuclear power, which is starting to challenge China.
So Nepal maybe?
Deep down tho, I still thirst to kill you and eat you. Ultra Chimp can't help it.. - Smitty

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: HH 59 : The Destroyer of Worlds

Post by Smitty-48 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:38 pm

See, case in point, China has started to build up a survivable second strike capability with new ballistic missile submarines, but that force actually stands no chance against the Americans, the Americans could sink those Boomers with the flick of an SSN wrist, but I would submit, those Chinese SSBN's are not targeted at America, those SSBN's are a reaction to India.

Up until recently, India has never had a strategic nuclear arsenal, they've only had tactical and theatre weapons for fighting Pakistan, but now India has begun to build a strategic arsenal, which is quite clearly targeted at China, because China made Pakistan their proxy, which then made China the principle threat and Pakistan actually secondary to that.
Nec Aspera Terrent