Debt Bubbles

[Martin Hash]

1. Housing
2. Auto loans
3. Student loans
4. Retirement
5. National Debt
6. CC
7. Stock Market

p.s. I think all of these bubbles are currently the largest they've ever been but, of course, what else would they be? That in itself is not surprising.

[Speaker to Animals]

Housing and auto loans are not too bad since they are secured.

Student loans are going to be a problem. The way the federal government, corporations, and universities conspired to flood the job markets with immigrants, drive up tuition, etc.. I am not sure I think students should even bother paying it back. It's fraudulent at this point.

I'd use student loan debt as a nuclear option to shut down immigration if I were President. No immigration slowdown, student debt gets canceled. Otherwise, people are going to start leaving for Europe. I recommend most kids to just go to Europe for their education anyway. If they want to come back, fine. They probably won't want to come back the way things are going.

[Martin Hash]

Dude, remember 2008: it’s not the defaults, those are just noise; it’s the 1000x derivatives based on the loans.

[Speaker to Animals]

God, please tell me there are no credit default swap contracts on student loans..

[SuburbanFarmer]

God, please tell me there are no credit default swap contracts on student loans..

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03- ... ow-you-can

For 5 years now.

Not only that, every dollar deposited in a US bank is leveraged 9x, loaned out, deposited, and leveraged again.

We are on the edge of The Cliff.

Not only that, but an incredible wave of inflation is hitting this year, as the 10 year bonds issued in 2008 for the bailout come due. This is why I'm predicting The Collapse by summer. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... -inflation

[Martin Hash]

Per another thread, I no longer think anything that can be solved with imaginary money, won’t be, so what would cause a collapse? My thesis is when consumption exceeds production, but we’ve got oodles of production capacity, so what could affect that?

1) Huge natural catastrophe.
2) World war.
3) Revolution.

All seem unlikely...

Maybe something social, like UBI? Consumption exceeds production.

[SuburbanFarmer]

And as I've been saying, mass inflation is the trigger all on its own. For every 1% rise in bond yields (rates), investors lose $1 Trillion. How long do you think they stick around for that, before the bond market starts to implode? And when it does, where does that money go? How much faster do rates go up? How long before it all comes down, and we're bartering British Pounds?

The final countdown is happening as we speak. Look at what happened a couple of weeks ago, just from yields going to 2.8%. 10% loss in the stock market, hedge funds dropping like flies, food prices already rising as oil goes up.

[Martin Hash]

Use The Fed (& SOMA) to print more money. Japan didn’t collapse & they’re in a worse hole than us. Demographics might do it though?

p.s. I’m less certain about a pending collapse than I was for the past couple years. From just this forum, I think people will accept an aristocracy as long as WiFi’s good. More than half our society are virtual Tories.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Use The Fed (& SOMA) to print more money. Japan didn’t collapse & they’re in a worse hole than us. Demographics might do it though?

p.s. I’m less certain about a pending collapse than I was for the past couple years. From just this forum, I think people will accept an aristocracy as long as WiFi’s good. More than half our society are virtual Tories.

Japan's central bank owns around 80% of their equity market. There's a name for that.

The yen is practically worthless, and they aren't the 'reserve currency' that the world uses to trade oil.

[Martin Hash]

That’s what I mean; we’ve got a long way to go still...

Inflation won’t cause a collapse on its own; in fact, it would help the debt bubbles significantly.

There may not be a collapse, just devaluation.