Monte Hall Hoax

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Martin Hash
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Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:18 am

Monte Hall Problem.png

The Monty Hall problem is a probability puzzle made famous by the supposedly “smartest person in the world” Marilyn vos Savant:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Vos Savant said that the contestant should switch doors because when the contest started, the odds against them were 1:3 but after one of the other doors was opened the odds were better at 1:2 on the remaining door. When a regular smart person is asked whether they want to switch, about 90% stick with their original choice because it’s self evident the odds are the same, but because the most intelligent person in the world disagrees with them and presents a slight-of-hand perpetuating the hoax, they are convinced they must be wrong,

Diagram.png

Well, can't fool me...

Suppose the show was taped, and a week later you walked in and started watching during the second choice between the two remaining doors; what’s your odds of guessing the car? 50/50. But what if you were also the contestant from the week before? Let me repeat: everything is the same except separated by a week. Odds don’t care what time it is; you started out with 1:3 odds which changed to 1:2 odds, and they are totally independent of the door. Smartest person in the world my ass.

p.s. What’s the odds if you want the goat?
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by DBTrek » Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:32 am

Seems fairly obvious that once the goat is revealed the odds change at that moment to 50/50.
Whether you change or not is irrelevant. There's a 50% chance you picked a car and a 50% you picked a goat. Switch, or don't.
But this idea that your current door, with the new information, still retains it's old 1:3 ratio of being right while the new door miraculously improves it's odds to 1:2 is retarded.

There are only two doors left.
The ratios that existed under the three door dilemma are no longer in play.
One door did not improve while the other door kept an old probability.
The game changed from a three door problem to a two door problem.
That switch reset the odds for all remaining doors.
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by C-Mag » Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:40 am

The question is unsound, it operates on the assumption that you want a car, ignoring the premise that someone may prefer to have a goat.
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by DBTrek » Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:53 am

C-Mag wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:40 am
The question is unsound, it operates on the assumption that you want a car, ignoring the premise that someone may prefer to have a goat.
That's actually fairly brilliant, dude.
Think about it, if you want a goat the flawed "genius" reasoning is the same.
"Better switch if you want the car because of odds. Oh, you want a goat? Uhh.. still better switch because of the odds"


The theory doesn't actually get you closer to the goat or the car., and it delivers the same advice no matter which you're after. It's just mental hand-waving bullshit that looks impressive to folks who can't reason.
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Fife » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:00 pm

Always switch. Your odds if you stick are 1 in 3. Your odds if you switch are 1 in 2.

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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by DBTrek » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:10 pm

Fife wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:00 pm
Always switch. Your odds if you stick are 1 in 3. Your odds if you switch are 1 in 2.
There are only two doors.
Your odds are 1 in 2 either way.

"But before there were two doors there were three ...."

Irrelevant.

NOW there are two doors.
NOW the odds are 50/50 on both doors.
If there were 100 doors before, but only two now - your odds aren't 1:99 if you don't switch when there are only two remaining doors.
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by C-Mag » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:13 pm

This question is analogous of our current political situation.

They tell you everyone wants a car, not a car of your choosing, but a car they have pre picked for you, which the announcer works to convince you its the car you want. They also tell you, you don't want a goat. Both choices suck. Get the car, get all the taxes that come with it, while they take a tax break for giving it to you. Get the goat and get stuck feeding that fucker for life, but you might get some milk and meat from the goat.
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by DBTrek » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:16 pm

https://statisticsbyjim.com/hypothesis- ... s-testing/

Statisticians and Fife disagree with me.
Buuuuuuuuuuut I don't care.
:twisted:
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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:23 pm

DBTrek wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:16 pm
https://statisticsbyjim.com/hypothesis- ... s-testing/

Statisticians and Fife disagree with me.
Buuuuuuuuuuut I don't care.
:twisted:
What makes the MM good is that I disagree with everyone yet I'm correct; very few people have the chops to do this.
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by DBTrek » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:35 pm

Actually, the more I think about it the more I'd like to see it used on a 100 door problem.
If you pick a door, and 98 goat doors are opened, leaving your choice or the "other" door .... will you really lose 99% of the time if you don't switch?
:think:

Maybe you would.
Hmmmmm.

You know what? Fuck goats, cars, and doors anyway.
"Hey varmints, don't mess with a guy that's riding a buffalo"