Monte Hall Hoax

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Anybody who doesn’t use Twitter is cool in my book. Goddamn twits, anyway.

fuckin' aye.

:cheers:

[SuburbanFarmer]

The interesting question is: if this is true (as most peoples' intuition suggests), then why are the computer models wrong?

I maintain it is because the "Monty opens door 2 or 3" assumption in the decision tree version is a bad assumption that gives switchers better odds in the model than they really have. If that bad assumption is built into the computer models, whelp, bing bang boom - you get 30 years of people spouting claptrap telling you that they are the ones 'following the science.'

I could be wrong, though - math is gay, and statistics are the gayest kind of math.

The ‘always switch’ thing comes from people doing ‘math’ and forgetting that in the real world, the car never moved, and Monte will never open a door with a car (because he knows where it is).

Based on that, the ‘choice’ is now whether to change or not. Your odds of making the correct choice are now 50/50, but it makes no difference which choice you make (stay or switch).

You never had more than a 1 in 3 chance at the car.

I agree. But smart people did a bunch of computer models that say we are wrong. I can't prove them wrong because I think computers are for nerds, and straight up refuse to de-cool myself by fuckin' with no programs.

Having worked in IT for 15 years, I don’t trust computer models.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

I’m never going to get famous at this rate.

Never say never.

Mozart got dumped in a paupers grave, but he's famous as fuck now.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

The ‘always switch’ thing comes from people doing ‘math’ and forgetting that in the real world, the car never moved, and Monte will never open a door with a car (because he knows where it is).

Based on that, the ‘choice’ is now whether to change or not. Your odds of making the correct choice are now 50/50, but it makes no difference which choice you make (stay or switch).

You never had more than a 1 in 3 chance at the car.

I agree. But smart people did a bunch of computer models that say we are wrong. I can't prove them wrong because I think computers are for nerds, and straight up refuse to de-cool myself by fuckin' with no programs.

Having worked in IT for 15 years, I don’t trust computer models.

Having failed to update my anti-virus software for, like, 400 days and running, neither do I.

But, proving them wrong would be pretty sweet.

[Martin Hash]

I’m never going to get famous at this rate.

Never say never.

Mozart got dumped in a paupers grave, but he's famous as fuck now.

I can’t taunt you guys with how famous I am if I’m dead. I’d have to hire someone.

[Martin Hash]

I agree. But smart people did a bunch of computer models that say we are wrong. I can't prove them wrong because I think computers are for nerds, and straight up refuse to de-cool myself by fuckin' with no programs.

Having worked in IT for 15 years, I don’t trust computer models.

Having failed to update my anti-virus software for, like, 400 days and running, neither do I.

But, proving them wrong would be pretty sweet.

My free anti-virus software keeps trying to get me to buy it every fucking day. What kind of idiot do they think I am that I would buy something I already get for free: dummies.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

I’m never going to get famous at this rate.

Never say never.

Mozart got dumped in a paupers grave, but he's famous as fuck now.

I can’t taunt you guys with how famous I am if I’m dead. I’d have to hire someone.

Well then, fortunately for you, while you aren't famous yet, you're already rich - so put someone on retainer. I'll submit an application.

[Martin Hash]

Never say never.

Mozart got dumped in a paupers grave, but he's famous as fuck now.

I can’t taunt you guys with how famous I am if I’m dead. I’d have to hire someone.

Well then, fortunately for you, while you aren't famous yet, you're already rich - so put someone on retainer. I'll submit an application.

The guy who’s antivirus software is 400 days out-of-date?! You’ve got the poor judgment of someone who gets the COVID vaccine.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

I can’t taunt you guys with how famous I am if I’m dead. I’d have to hire someone.

Well then, fortunately for you, while you aren't famous yet, you're already rich - so put someone on retainer. I'll submit an application.

The guy who’s antivirus software is 400 days out-of-date?! You’ve got the poor judgment of someone who gets the COVID vaccine.

I have the same response to computer viruses as I have to the China Virus.

I am nothing if not consistent.

[Martin Hash]

Well then, fortunately for you, while you aren't famous yet, you're already rich - so put someone on retainer. I'll submit an application.

The guy who’s antivirus software is 400 days out-of-date?! You’ve got the poor judgment of someone who gets the COVID vaccine.

I have the same response to computer viruses as I have to the China Virus.

I am nothing if not consistent.

In that case, besides “gambler,” what other life experience do you have? I know you’re expert at mocking and pissing off other people, and zero ability to compromise... Did I miss anything?